TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13126945
Played Sep 13Finished
Michal Lysakowski
Home
1.18
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1179119111719––
Sylwester Wloszek
Away
4.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Lysakowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
1179119111719––
H2H Michal Lysakowski 70–57 Sylwester Wloszek Sylwester Wloszek has won 57 of their 127 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Lysakowski beat Wloszek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:06What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.18 (79%)
Lysakowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
70-57 in 127
Lysakowski
Wrong
gap of 13 in 127, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysakowski 1652 vs Wloszek 1536
Lysakowski
Wrong
both rated, 116 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysakowski 40% vs Wloszek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysakowski 60% vs Wloszek 40%
Lysakowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysakowski -2 · Wloszek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Lysakowski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wloszek form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysakowski 1.18 / Wloszek 4.50
Signal prob.82% / 18%
Edge (Lysakowski)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13126945
Lysakowski1.18
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 183 of 328
Up 2–0, closes it92% 115 of 125
Up 1–0, closes it75% 154 of 206
Wloszek4.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 120 of 324
Down 0–1, comes back17% 33 of 196
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysakowski4wins
AwayWloszek6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderWloszek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysakowski60%3 of 5
AwayWloszek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysakowski5Wloszek5n = 10split evenly
S2Lysakowski5Wloszek5n = 10split evenly
S3Lysakowski7Wloszek3n = 10Lysakowski took 7 of 10
S4Lysakowski3Wloszek4n = 7Wloszek took 4 of 7
S5Lysakowski1Wloszek4n = 5Wloszek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysakowskiWloszekL − WBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.640.8−0.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysakowskiWloszekBasisWin rate · lifetime646 / 1321 vs 457 / 104548.9%43.7%646 / 1321 vs 457 / 1045Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysakowskiLysakowski 1.18/Wloszek 4.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
82.4%
Lysakowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Wloszek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 17:35M. Lysakowski351111133S. Wloszek2568110
WSep 9 · 09:00M. Lysakowski47911115113S. Wloszek4411591182
LSep 3 · 09:00M. Lysakowski4092111262S. Wloszek511111810113
LAug 28 · 07:30M. Lysakowski521111128102S. Wloszek53881411123
WAug 26 · 12:30M. Lysakowski361311123S. Wloszek30119100
LAug 26 · 08:00M. Lysakowski247890S. Wloszek331111113
WAug 25 · 11:00M. Lysakowski4211812113S. Wloszek378111081
LAug 19 · 12:30M. Lysakowski36791191S. Wloszek3711114113
LAug 19 · 10:00M. Lysakowski49119111082S. Wloszek51811912113
LAug 18 · 12:00M. Lysakowski4591181162S. Wloszek47115119113
M. Lysakowski10
LSep 13 · 21:35M. Lysakowski2.00115571M. Stepien1.7181111113LSep 13 · 19:35S. Radlo2.201171211113M. Lysakowski1.60711101392WSep 13 · 18:35M. Lysakowski1.6612119133P. Gola2.0010811111WSep 13 · 17:35S. Wloszek2.6068110M. Lysakowski1.441111133LSep 13 · 16:05M. Lysakowski1.50881271B. Molka2.40111110113WSep 12 · 14:05D. Skvarskyi1.821168101M. Lysakowski1.8881111123LSep 12 · 12:05D. Skvarskyi1.9811117113M. Lysakowski1.73891171WSep 12 · 11:05M. Lysakowski2.051111113M. Stepien1.688850WSep 12 · 10:05M. Lysakowski1.7121511143P. Gola2.0019114121WSep 12 · 08:35M. Lysakowski1.5713111211113S. Radlo2.151113101372
S. Wloszek10
WSep 13 · 21:05S. Radlo1.718860S. Wloszek2.001111113LSep 13 · 20:05S. Wloszek1.955814131B. Molka1.74111112153LSep 13 · 19:05S. Wloszek2.60111051152M. Stepien1.41912116113LSep 13 · 17:35S. Wloszek2.6068110M. Lysakowski1.441111133WSep 13 · 15:35S. Wloszek2.2511811113P. Gola1.54111861LSep 10 · 13:10S. Wloszek2.8071170M. Galus1.391113113LSep 10 · 11:00M. Ovcharenko1.36126911113S. Wloszek2.90101111982LSep 10 · 10:00S. Wloszek2.35951171D. Skvarskyi1.5011116113WSep 10 · 09:00S. Wloszek2.551381112123M. Stepien1.411111814102WSep 10 · 07:30S. Wloszek2.558111110143M. Galus1.46116412122
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