TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115690
Played Sep 13Finished
Andrzej Szurgot
Home
4.20
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111161412115––
Krzysztof Schaniel
Away
1.16
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Schaniel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
6111161412115––
H2H Andrzej Szurgot 1–2 Krzysztof Schaniel Andrzej Szurgot has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Schaniel beat Szurgot 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:04What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.16 (78%)
Schaniel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szurgot 1059 vs Schaniel 1435
Schaniel
Wrong
both rated, 376 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szurgot 0% vs Schaniel 60%
Schaniel
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szurgot 10% vs Schaniel 60%
Schaniel
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szurgot -5 · Schaniel -1
Szurgot
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Schaniel) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schaniel form (60%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzurgot 4.20 / Schaniel 1.16
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Schaniel)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13115690
Szurgot4.20
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog15% won 10 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back12% 6 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Schaniel1.16
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 198 of 335
Up 2–0, closes it90% 96 of 107
Up 1–0, closes it77% 149 of 193
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSzurgot1wins
AwaySchaniel2wins
Schaniel leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szurgot1Schaniel2n = 3Schaniel took 2 of 3
S2Szurgot1Schaniel2n = 3Schaniel took 2 of 3
S3Szurgot1Schaniel2n = 3Schaniel took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricSzurgotSchanielSzurgot − SchanielBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match29.334.7−5.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzurgotSchanielBasisWin rate · lifetime15 / 86 vs 873 / 175017.4%49.9%15 / 86 vs 873 / 1750Avg sets wonper match1.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match30.439.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchanielSzurgot 4.20/Schaniel 1.16
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
81.2%
Schaniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Szurgot won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 12 · 19:30A. Szurgot27811441K. Schaniel3911611113
LSep 5 · 24:35A. Szurgot216870K. Schaniel331111113
WSep 4 · 18:30A. Szurgot4011711113K. Schaniel32711861
A. Szurgot10
LSep 13 · 02:20O. Sokolowski1.2511811123A. Szurgot3.455117101LSep 13 · 24:20A. Szurgot3.005890R. Wiza1.301111113LSep 12 · 22:40A. Szurgot2.5581251162G. Sawicki1.451110118113LSep 12 · 21:05R. Szymik1.121111113A. Szurgot4.753380LSep 12 · 20:20R. Wiza1.331113113A. Szurgot2.9071170LSep 12 · 19:30A. Szurgot4.20811441K. Schaniel1.1611611113LSep 12 · 18:20A. Szurgot8.00613941P. Gasiorski1.03111111113LSep 12 · 04:40J. Michalski1.601211113A. Szurgot2.1110580LSep 12 · 03:55J. Orszulik1.2481111113A. Szurgot3.40115151LSep 12 · 01:55R. Szymik1.1651111113A. Szurgot4.40116791
K. Schaniel10
LSep 12 · 23:55R. Szymik1.6591111113K. Schaniel2.02116981WSep 12 · 23:05R. Wiza2.5011911352K. Schaniel1.46611611113WSep 12 · 21:55K. Schaniel1.571211113G. Sawicki2.2010780LSep 12 · 20:45P. Gasiorski1.25118115113K. Schaniel3.5571171142WSep 12 · 19:30A. Szurgot4.20811441K. Schaniel1.1611611113LSep 12 · 17:55R. Szymik1.82111116113K. Schaniel1.8811961192WSep 12 · 01:45S. Krupa1.91781151K. Schaniel1.8011119113WSep 12 · 01:00G. Sawicki2.6381260K. Schaniel1.441114113LSep 12 · 24:10K. Schaniel1.67811311102O. Vincenec2.10118116123WSep 11 · 22:35K. Schaniel2.25114911113L. Oracz1.5771111682
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