TT Lossbeater/WTT Contender Almaty
WTT Contender AlmatyMatch #13072216
Played Sep 4Finished
Mattias Karlsson
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1177111141214911
Kazuki Hamada
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMattias Karlsson to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMattias Karlsson above · Kazuki Hamada below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 97 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Mattias Karlsson at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:51What took a side1 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Karlsson
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Form (L5)
Karlsson 60% vs Hamada 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karlsson 60% vs Hamada 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karlsson +2 · Hamada +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Karlsson)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarlsson 1.73 / Hamada 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Karlsson)+0.3pp
WTT Contender Almaty · #13072216
Karlsson1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Hamada2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarlssonHamadaBasisWin rate · lifetime6 / 10 vs 6 / 1060%60%6 / 10 vs 6 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.42.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarlssonKarlsson 1.73/Hamada 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Karlsson · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hamada won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Karlsson10
WSep 3 · 12:10M. Karlsson—71111123S. Zhubanov—1136101WSep 3 · 12:10M. Karlsson1.0671111123S. Zhubanov8.001136101LAug 10 · 16:35J. Groth1.83117711123M. Karlsson1.83811118102LJul 24 · 15:10M. Karlsson1.838111181T. Pucar1.8311136113WJul 23 · 07:00M. Karlsson1.221611163M. Mutti4.00149140LJun 27 · 02:50A. Bertelsmeier1.82812119113M. Karlsson1.82111081172WJun 26 · 19:20M. Karlsson1.171211711113L. Pistej4.5014811472LJun 4 · 10:45M. Karlsson3.751151091H. Shinozuka1.2561112113WJun 3 · 15:10M. Oikawa1.5391180M. Karlsson2.381113113WJun 3 · 10:20M. Karlsson1.221111113R. Castro4.009640
K. Hamada10
LSep 5 · 12:45S. Togami1.171111113K. Hamada4.409870WSep 5 · 06:00D. Ivonin2.6312490K. Hamada1.441411113WSep 3 · 05:00E. Dorr2.38111291032K. Hamada1.536101112113LJun 16 · 11:35K. Hamada1.139115101A. Naranjo5.5011911123LJun 11 · 11:20R. Wen1.1411118113K. Hamada5.00881141WJun 10 · 17:00M. Badowski2.3811914101K. Hamada1.5371116123WJun 10 · 10:55M. Kubik2.1011811692K. Hamada1.67911911113WJun 9 · 18:50C. Meissner3.4081111772K. Hamada1.30119511113LMay 12 · 16:20K. Yiu—11911133K. Hamada—6118111LMar 16 · 17:15K. Hamada1.40111111782C. Andras2.75136211113
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