TT Lossbeater/WTT Star Contender Brazil
WTT Star Contender BrazilMatch #12283670
Played Jul 23Finished
Mattias Karlsson
Home
1.22
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
16141191614––––
Matteo Mutti
Away
4.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:49 and never touched — 75.0% is still 75.0%
Graded at full timeMattias Karlsson to win
75.0%
75.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMattias Karlsson above · Matteo Mutti below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 14-14
Point 78 set 3, 14-14 — our read held Mattias Karlsson at 75.0%
78 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Mattias Karlsson 1–0 Matteo Mutti Matteo Mutti has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:49What took a side2 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Karlsson
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Form (L5)
Karlsson 60% vs Mutti 40%
Karlsson
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karlsson 60% vs Mutti 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karlsson -1 · Mutti -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Karlsson) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mutti form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarlsson 1.22 / Mutti 4.00
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Karlsson)+0.0pp
WTT Star Contender Brazil · #12283670
Karlsson1.22
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Mutti4.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKarlsson1wins
AwayMutti0wins
Karlsson leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKarlssonMuttiK − MBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match43.037.0+6.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarlssonMuttiBasisWin rate · lifetime6 / 10 vs 5 / 1060%50%6 / 10 vs 5 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.11.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarlssonKarlsson 1.22/Mutti 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.6%
Karlsson · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Karlsson won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WJul 23 · 07:00M. Karlsson—1611163M. Mutti—149140
M. Karlsson10
LSep 4 · 05:35M. Karlsson1.73117111292K. Hamada2.00711414113WSep 3 · 12:10M. Karlsson—71111123S. Zhubanov—1136101WSep 3 · 12:10M. Karlsson1.0671111123S. Zhubanov8.001136101LAug 10 · 16:35J. Groth1.83117711123M. Karlsson1.83811118102LJul 24 · 15:10M. Karlsson1.838111181T. Pucar1.8311136113LJun 27 · 02:50A. Bertelsmeier1.82812119113M. Karlsson1.82111081172WJun 26 · 19:20M. Karlsson1.171211711113L. Pistej4.5014811472LJun 4 · 10:45M. Karlsson3.751151091H. Shinozuka1.2561112113WJun 3 · 15:10M. Oikawa1.5391180M. Karlsson2.381113113WJun 3 · 10:20M. Karlsson1.221111113R. Castro4.009640
M. Mutti10
LAug 8 · 18:50M. Mutti1.6711791452S. Walker2.109111112113LMay 13 · 16:25M. Yoshimura1.141211113M. Mutti5.0010650WMay 13 · 10:20T. Schweiger2.101151351M. Mutti1.67131111113WMay 12 · 08:00M. Mutti1.801211123A. Pal1.91107100LMay 4 · 11:15M. Mutti3.25127561A. Gacina1.33101111113LMay 4 · 09:35M. Mutti4.003870T. Pucar1.221111113WMay 1 · 16:30M. Mutti3.25112115143H. Cifuentes1.33511911122WMay 1 · 09:00Q. Wong2.2061060M. Mutti1.601112113LApr 30 · 09:20M. Mutti2.504880R. Gardos1.501111113LMar 26 · 18:20V. Sidorenko1.201511113M. Mutti4.3313590
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