TT Lossbeater/WTT Europe Smash Sweden
WTT Europe Smash SwedenMatch #12390477
Played Aug 10Finished
Jonathan Groth
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1187117111181210
Mattias Karlsson
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMattias Karlsson to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJonathan Groth above · Mattias Karlsson below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 96 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Mattias Karlsson at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:10What took a side2 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Karlsson
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Form (L5)
Groth 0% vs Karlsson 40%
Karlsson
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Groth 50% vs Karlsson 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Groth -5 · Karlsson -1
Groth
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Karlsson)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karlsson form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGroth 1.83 / Karlsson 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Karlsson)+4.0pp
WTT Europe Smash Sweden · #12390477
Groth1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest67%takes the first set · 6 of 9
Karlsson1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrothKarlssonBasisWin rate · lifetime5 / 10 vs 6 / 1050%60%5 / 10 vs 6 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarlssonGroth 1.83/Karlsson 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Karlsson · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Groth won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
J. Groth10
LAug 14 · 12:50O. Assar2.50131159113J. Groth1.50119111192WAug 13 · 17:45J. Groth6.60115112113Y. Lin1.0681141192WAug 13 · 17:45J. Groth7.00115112113Y. Lin1.0881141192LJun 29 · 02:45C. Wong1.61512128113J. Groth2.201110101162LJun 18 · 16:10J. Groth2.407101161M. Oikawa1.4811127113LJun 18 · 04:00J. Groth2.507101161M. Oikawa1.5011127113LJun 4 · 10:45J. Lim1.501214113J. Groth2.50101240LMay 6 · 09:00J. Groth1.73111178112Y. Feng2.00551111133WMay 4 · 20:30E. Ly4.3518130J. Groth1.161111153WMay 4 · 18:26E. Wang4.008690J. Groth1.221111113
M. Karlsson10
LSep 4 · 05:35M. Karlsson1.73117111292K. Hamada2.00711414113WSep 3 · 12:10M. Karlsson—71111123S. Zhubanov—1136101WSep 3 · 12:10M. Karlsson1.0671111123S. Zhubanov8.001136101LJul 24 · 15:10M. Karlsson1.838111181T. Pucar1.8311136113WJul 23 · 07:00M. Karlsson1.221611163M. Mutti4.00149140LJun 27 · 02:50A. Bertelsmeier1.82812119113M. Karlsson1.82111081172WJun 26 · 19:20M. Karlsson1.171211711113L. Pistej4.5014811472LJun 4 · 10:45M. Karlsson3.751151091H. Shinozuka1.2561112113WJun 3 · 15:10M. Oikawa1.5391180M. Karlsson2.381113113WJun 3 · 10:20M. Karlsson1.221111113R. Castro4.009640
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