TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12284116
Played Jul 22Finished
Michal Dabek
Home
5.70
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
111911511––––
Karol Guzy
Away
1.08
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:47 and never touched — 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeKarol Guzy to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
48 points played in total.
Set by set
111911511––––
H2H Michal Dabek 4–17 Karol Guzy Michal Dabek has won 4 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:47What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.08 (84%)
Guzy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-17 in 21
Guzy
Correct
gap of 13 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dabek 1431 vs Guzy 1663
Guzy
Correct
both rated, 232 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dabek 20% vs Guzy 80%
Guzy
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dabek 30% vs Guzy 80%
Guzy
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dabek -4 · Guzy -1
Dabek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 93% — Strong (leans Guzy) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzy form (80%) is below what odds imply (93%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDabek 5.70 / Guzy 1.08
Signal prob.7% / 93%
Edge (Guzy)+8.8pp
TT Cup · #12284116
Dabek5.70
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As underdog49% won 20 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back29% 7 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Guzy1.08
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 131 of 226
Up 2–0, closes it90% 61 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it82% 102 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDabek1wins
AwayGuzy9wins
Guzy leads 9–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDabekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayGuzy88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dabek1Guzy9n = 10Guzy took 9 of 10
S2Dabek2Guzy8n = 10Guzy took 8 of 10
S3Dabek2Guzy8n = 10Guzy took 8 of 10
S4Dabek1Guzy3n = 4Guzy took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricDabekGuzyD − GBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match25.336.6−11.3per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDabekGuzyBasisWin rate · lifetime133 / 245 vs 639 / 107954.3%59.2%133 / 245 vs 639 / 1079Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.740.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzyDabek 5.70/Guzy 1.08
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
92.9%
Guzy · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Guzy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 21 · 19:30M. Dabek—9850K. Guzy—1111113
LMay 20 · 22:30M. Dabek—61290K. Guzy—1114113
WMay 20 · 20:00M. Dabek—51211113K. Guzy—1110881
LMar 24 · 22:40M. Dabek—1554101K. Guzy—131111123
LMar 24 · 21:00M. Dabek—1011571K. Guzy—12611113
LMar 23 · 16:00M. Dabek—7780K. Guzy—1111113
LMar 6 · 16:00M. Dabek—751151K. Guzy—11118113
LMar 5 · 16:05M. Dabek—8960K. Guzy—1111113
LSep 17 · 11:15M. Dabek—4270K. Guzy—1111113
LSep 17 · 08:35M. Dabek—2640K. Guzy—1111113
M. Dabek10
WJul 22 · 21:30D. Kovtanyuk—5670M. Dabek—1111113LJul 22 · 19:00B. Gola1.751111113M. Dabek1.897850LJul 22 · 17:00A. Veliiev1.491111113M. Dabek2.454620LJul 22 · 16:00D. Kovtanyuk1.9811116113M. Dabek1.68591171LJul 22 · 15:30M. Dabek3.550350K. Kowalewski1.221111113WMay 21 · 21:30M. Dabek—411112123T. Stachera—113911102LMay 21 · 20:30K. Zapala1.4611118113M. Dabek2.41871181LMay 21 · 19:30K. Guzy1.461111113M. Dabek2.409850LMay 21 · 18:00B. Gola1.581113113M. Dabek2.1541130WMay 21 · 15:30D. Kovtanyuk2.331241091M. Dabek1.49101112113
K. Guzy10
WSep 6 · 14:15K. Guzy1.8891111113K. Kowalewski1.82118691LSep 6 · 13:05K. Guzy1.9813811562A. Duch1.751111711113WSep 6 · 11:05K. Zapala2.60781291K. Guzy1.44111110113WSep 6 · 09:05K. Kowalewski1.8751181182K. Guzy1.83117117113LSep 6 · 08:05P. Kos2.5041111113K. Guzy1.46118821WSep 6 · 07:35K. Guzy1.701011811113M. Szymanski2.0512911892LSep 5 · 23:35K. Guzy2.061176101A. Duch1.6341111123WSep 5 · 21:05D. Bucko1.83511941K. Guzy1.8811711113WSep 5 · 20:05K. Guzy1.90111137113A. Duch1.7698111192WMay 21 · 19:30K. Guzy1.461111113M. Dabek2.409850
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