TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12081137
Played Jun 22Finished
Andrii Ostrovskyi
Home
6.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811511711––––
Kirill Fadeev
Away
1.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingAndrii Ostrovskyi above · Kirill Fadeev below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 53 set 3, 7-11
53 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Ostrovskyi 0–4 Kirill Fadeev Andrii Ostrovskyi has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Fadeev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fadeev form (60%) is below what odds imply (91%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOstrovskyi 6.50 / Fadeev 1.10
Signal prob.15% / 86%
Edge (Fadeev)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12081137
Ostrovskyi6.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest78%takes the first set · 7 of 9
Fadeev1.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeOstrovskyi0wins
AwayFadeev4wins
1 of 4 to a deciderFadeev leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ostrovskyi2Fadeev2n = 4split evenly
S2Ostrovskyi0Fadeev4n = 4Fadeev took 4 of 4
S3Ostrovskyi1Fadeev3n = 4Fadeev took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricOstrovskyiFadeevO − FBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match28.039.8−11.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOstrovskyiFadeevBasisWin rate · lifetime14 / 44 vs 144 / 19831.8%72.7%14 / 44 vs 144 / 198Avg sets wonper match1.42.5per matchAvg pointsper match31.537.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FadeevOstrovskyi 6.50/Fadeev 1.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.5%
Fadeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Fadeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJun 22 · 07:00A. Ostrovskyi—8570K. Fadeev—1111113
LMar 24 · 11:30A. Ostrovskyi—127961K. Fadeev—101111113
LMar 23 · 11:30A. Ostrovskyi—11512272K. Fadeev—7111011113
LDec 23 · 07:30A. Ostrovskyi—7680K. Fadeev—1111113
A. Ostrovskyi10
WJun 23 · 08:00A. Ostrovskyi—118811123M. Stefanidis—611117102LJun 22 · 16:00A. Ostrovskyi4.507840M. Danzer1.171111113LJun 22 · 12:30A. Ostrovskyi1.830M. Nogami1.833LJun 22 · 11:00A. Ostrovskyi1.331L. Dreykorn3.253LJun 22 · 08:30T. Pellny1.2812119113A. Ostrovskyi3.501061171LMar 24 · 11:30K. Fadeev1.27101111113A. Ostrovskyi3.40127961LMar 24 · 10:45J. Shim1.751111113A. Ostrovskyi1.956450LMar 24 · 09:00A. Ostrovskyi5.50111110802M. Danzer1.1362121143WMar 23 · 18:00A. Ostrovskyi1.041111113L. Mahnert9.008580WMar 23 · 16:00A. Ostrovskyi1.611191011113P. Koloidenko2.2041112572
K. Fadeev10
WSep 7 · 13:30K. Fadeev—15211113S. Almeida—1311481WSep 7 · 11:30K. Fadeev1.361111113V. Senkbeil3.008490WSep 7 · 10:00K. Fadeev1.0311118113C. Schmitt10.00491161WSep 7 · 08:00K. Waltl6.00114861K. Fadeev1.1191111113WSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 09:47A. Limonov1.40111111143K. Fadeev2.751355121LSep 1 · 08:00A. Limonov1.57111195113K. Fadeev2.2584111172WSep 1 · 07:00K. Fadeev—611511113M. Stefanidis—11711992WAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113WMar 24 · 11:30K. Fadeev1.27101111113A. Ostrovskyi3.40127961
Upcoming Matches
A. Ostrovskyi
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K. Fadeev
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