Grzegorz Marud vs Oliver Vincenec 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesPOC · Poczesna

Played Oct 13Finished

Grzegorz Marud

Home

1.70

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

61111131311116118

Oliver Vincenec

Away

1.95

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:29 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Oliver Vincenec to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is going

Point-by-point unavailable

BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.

101 points played in total.

Set by set

61111131311116118

H2H Grzegorz Marud 15–17 Oliver Vincenec Grzegorz Marud has won 15 of their 32 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3SplitHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Vincenec

Marud 1.70/Vincenec 1.95

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Vincenec · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Marud won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 00:29

54.0%Our read51.3%to break even at 1.95

clears by 2.7pp

51.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.95 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.70 (53%)

Marud

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

15-17 in 32

Vincenec

Wrong

gap of 2 in 32, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Marud 1386 vs Vincenec 1259

Marud

Correct

both rated, 127 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Marud 20% vs Vincenec 60%

Vincenec

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Marud 50% vs Vincenec 50%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Marud -1 · Vincenec -2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vincenec) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Marud: form 20%, the price implies 59%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMarud 1.70 / Vincenec 1.95

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Vincenec)+2.7pp

Same-day rematch · 2h before this match

Marud beat Vincenec 3-2.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeMarud7wins

AwayVincenec3wins

2 of 10 to a deciderMarud leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMarud85.7%6 of 7

AwayVincenec66.7%2 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Marud7Vincenec3n = 10Marud took 7 of 10

S2Marud7Vincenec3n = 10Marud took 7 of 10

S3Marud7Vincenec3n = 10Marud took 7 of 10

S4Marud3Vincenec3n = 6split evenly

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home440%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricMarudVincenecM − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.731.5+6.2per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMarudVincenecBasisWin rate · lifetime660 / 1376 vs 728 / 159948%45.5%660 / 1376 vs 728 / 1599Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.5per match

TT Elite Series · #13287679

Marud1.70

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite53% won 122 of 229

Up 2–0, closes it86% 74 of 86

Up 1–0, closes it70% 98 of 140

Vincenec1.95

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

As underdog40% won 188 of 471

Down 0–1, comes back23% 65 of 279

Down 0–2, comes back8% 11 of 142

Grzegorz Marud vs Oliver Vincenec 3-2 · TT Elite Series

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Grzegorz Marud vs Oliver Vincenec 3-2 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.