Lukasz Oracz vs Grzegorz Marud 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesPOC · Poczesna

Played Oct 12Finished

Lukasz Oracz

Home

1.70

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

611116611114117

Grzegorz Marud

Away

2.00

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:18 and never touched: 54.2% is still 54.2%

Graded at full time

Grzegorz Marud to win

54.2%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is going

Point-by-point unavailable

BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.

84 points played in total.

Set by set

611116611114117

H2H Lukasz Oracz 9–16 Grzegorz Marud Lukasz Oracz has won 9 of their 25 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Marud

Oracz 1.70/Marud 2.00

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54.2%

Marud · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Oracz won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 21:18

54.2%Our read50.0%to break even at 2.00

clears by 4.2pp

50.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.00 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.70 (54%)

Oracz

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

9-16 in 25

Marud

Wrong

gap of 7 in 25, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Oracz 1374 vs Marud 1419

Marud

Wrong

both rated, 45 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Oracz 40% vs Marud 60%

Marud

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Oracz 50% vs Marud 70%

Marud

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Oracz -1 · Marud -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Marud) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Oracz: form 40%, the price implies 59%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsOracz 1.70 / Marud 2.00

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Marud)+4.2pp

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeOracz4wins

AwayMarud6wins

4 of 10 to a deciderMarud leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeOracz42.9%3 of 7

AwayMarud66.7%2 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Oracz7Marud3n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10

S2Oracz4Marud6n = 10Marud took 6 of 10

S3Oracz3Marud7n = 10Marud took 7 of 10

S4Oracz2Marud4n = 6Marud took 4 of 6

S5Oracz2Marud2n = 4split evenly

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricOraczMarudO − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.538.2−3.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricOraczMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime875 / 1590 vs 662 / 137555%48.2%875 / 1590 vs 662 / 1375Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.6per match

TT Elite Series · #13286698

Oracz1.70

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite64% won 360 of 566

Up 2–0, closes it97% 204 of 211

Up 1–0, closes it82% 282 of 346

Marud2.00

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog42% won 127 of 306

Down 0–1, comes back22% 36 of 164

Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 100

Lukasz Oracz vs Grzegorz Marud 3-2 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Lukasz Oracz vs Grzegorz Marud 3-2 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.