Jan Vonasek vs Vaclav Hejda Jr 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupCzech 4 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Jan Vonasek

Home

1.67

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

91114121149111210

Vaclav Hejda Jr

Away

2.10

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:31 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%

Graded at full time

Jan Vonasek to win

56.2%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingJan Vonasek above · Vaclav Hejda Jr below

Set 1 · 9-11

Set 2 · 14-12

Set 3 · 11-4

Set 4 · 9-11

Set 5 · 12-10

Point 103 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Jan Vonasek at 56.2%

103 points played in total.

H2H Jan Vonasek 59–48 Vaclav Hejda Jr Vaclav Hejda Jr has won 48 of their 107 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6SplitHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Vonasek

Vonasek 1.67/Hejda Jr 2.10

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

56.2%

Vonasek · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Vonasek won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 14:31

56.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666

short by 3.8pp

60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Vonasek

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

59-48 in 107

Vonasek

Correct

gap of 11 in 107, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Vonasek 1617 vs Hejda Jr 1596

Vonasek

Correct

both rated, 21 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Vonasek 40% vs Hejda Jr 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Vonasek 50% vs Hejda Jr 70%

Hejda Jr

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Vonasek +1 · Hejda Jr -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Vonasek) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Vonasek: form 40%, the price implies 60%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsVonasek 1.666 / Hejda Jr 2.10

Signal prob.56% / 44%

Edge (Vonasek)-3.8pp (anti-value)

Same-day rematch · 2h before this match

Hejda Jr beat Vonasek 3-2.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeVonasek4wins

AwayHejda Jr6wins

6 of 10 to a deciderHejda Jr leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeVonasek66.7%2 of 3

AwayHejda Jr71.4%5 of 7

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Vonasek3Hejda Jr7n = 10Hejda Jr took 7 of 10

S2Vonasek4Hejda Jr6n = 10Hejda Jr took 6 of 10

S3Vonasek8Hejda Jr2n = 10Vonasek took 8 of 10

S4Vonasek2Hejda Jr6n = 8Hejda Jr took 6 of 8

S5Vonasek3Hejda Jr3n = 6split evenly

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away330%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricVonasekHejda JrV − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match43.142.9+0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricVonasekHejda JrBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 731 vs 385 / 78150.5%49.3%369 / 731 vs 385 / 781Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.3per match

TT Cup · #13285058

Vonasek1.67

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite65% won 83 of 128

Up 2–0, closes it96% 44 of 46

Up 1–0, closes it83% 60 of 72

Hejda Jr2.10

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog49% won 94 of 192

Down 0–1, comes back28% 23 of 83

Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33

Jan Vonasek vs Vaclav Hejda Jr 3-2 · TT Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Jan Vonasek vs Vaclav Hejda Jr 3-2 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.