Vaclav Hejda Jr vs Jan Vonasek 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupCzech 4 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Vaclav Hejda Jr

Home

2.00

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

1191214711117114

Jan Vonasek

Away

1.73

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:11 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%

Graded at full time

Jan Vonasek to win

54.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingVaclav Hejda Jr above · Jan Vonasek below

Set 1 · 11-9

Set 2 · 12-14

Set 3 · 7-11

Set 4 · 11-7

Set 5 · 11-4

Point 97 set 5, 11-4 · our read held Jan Vonasek at 54.1%

97 points played in total.

H2H Vaclav Hejda Jr 47–59 Jan Vonasek Vaclav Hejda Jr has won 47 of their 106 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Vonasek

Hejda Jr 2.00/Vonasek 1.73

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54.1%

Vonasek · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Hejda Jr won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 12:11

54.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727

short by 3.8pp

57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Vonasek

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

47-59 in 106

Vonasek

Wrong

gap of 12 in 106, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Hejda Jr 1601 vs Vonasek 1621

Vonasek

Wrong

both rated, 21 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Hejda Jr 60% vs Vonasek 20%

Hejda Jr

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Hejda Jr 60% vs Vonasek 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Hejda Jr +1 · Vonasek +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vonasek) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Vonasek: form 20%, the price implies 58%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsHejda Jr 2.00 / Vonasek 1.727

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Vonasek)-3.8pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeHejda Jr5wins

AwayVonasek5wins

5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeHejda Jr66.7%4 of 6

AwayVonasek75%3 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Hejda Jr6Vonasek4n = 10Hejda Jr took 6 of 10

S2Hejda Jr7Vonasek3n = 10Hejda Jr took 7 of 10

S3Hejda Jr2Vonasek8n = 10Vonasek took 8 of 10

S4Hejda Jr5Vonasek3n = 8Hejda Jr took 5 of 8

S5Hejda Jr2Vonasek3n = 5Vonasek took 3 of 5

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away330%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricHejda JrVonasekH − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.842.9−2.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricHejda JrVonasekBasisWin rate · lifetime384 / 779 vs 368 / 72949.3%50.5%384 / 779 vs 368 / 729Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.4per match

TT Cup · #13281864

Hejda Jr2.00

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog49% won 94 of 192

Down 0–1, comes back28% 23 of 83

Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33

Vonasek1.73

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite65% won 83 of 128

Up 2–0, closes it96% 44 of 46

Up 1–0, closes it83% 60 of 72

Vaclav Hejda Jr vs Jan Vonasek 3-2 · TT Cup

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Match Winner

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Vaclav Hejda Jr vs Jan Vonasek 3-2 · TT Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.