TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ales Langer vs Jan Vonasek 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161151513––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingAles Langer above · Jan Vonasek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 15-13
Point 61 set 3, 15-13
61 points played in total.
H2H Ales Langer 27–46 Jan Vonasek Ales Langer has won 27 of their 73 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Langer beat Vonasek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vonasek form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLanger 2.20 / Vonasek 1.615
TT Cup · #13263943
Langer2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 78 of 190
Down 0–1, comes back25% 26 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 54
Vonasek1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 83 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it96% 44 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it83% 60 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLanger3wins
AwayVonasek7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVonasek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLanger60%3 of 5
AwayVonasek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Langer5Vonasek5n = 10split evenly
S2Langer4Vonasek6n = 10Vonasek took 6 of 10
S3Langer3Vonasek7n = 10Vonasek took 7 of 10
S4Langer1Vonasek5n = 6Vonasek took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricLangerVonasekL − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.136.1−4.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLangerVonasekBasisWin rate · lifetime270 / 574 vs 368 / 73547%50.1%270 / 574 vs 368 / 735Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VonasekLanger 2.20/Vonasek 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
3–0
Langer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 07:55A. Langer4111811113J. Vonasek34711881
LOct 7 · 06:55A. Langer32711681J. Vonasek4011711113
WOct 6 · 12:20A. Langer331111113J. Vonasek258980
LOct 4 · 06:20A. Langer218850J. Vonasek331111113
LOct 1 · 14:09A. Langer175570J. Vonasek331111113
LOct 1 · 11:50A. Langer46111110592J. Vonasek46841211113
WSep 30 · 06:55A. Langer50111189113J. Vonasek3917111192
LSep 29 · 11:20A. Langer217950J. Vonasek331111113
LSep 24 · 10:15A. Langer35781191J. Vonasek3911116113
LSep 24 · 06:55A. Langer25112481J. Vonasek3961111113
A. Langer10
LOct 8 · 08:55A. Langer2.208813131O. Fiklik1.61111111153WOct 8 · 07:55A. Langer2.6311811113J. Vonasek1.44711881WOct 8 · 06:55A. Langer1.911111612113V. Hejda Jr1.8044111442LOct 7 · 09:54O. Fiklik1.53941312113A. Langer2.381111111082LOct 7 · 08:55A. Langer2.25461191V. Hejda Jr1.5711119113LOct 7 · 07:55A. Langer2.107150O. Fiklik1.671111113LOct 7 · 06:55A. Langer2.63711681J. Vonasek1.4411711113LOct 6 · 13:55P. Benes1.331111123A. Langer2.9027100WOct 6 · 12:20A. Langer2.631111113J. Vonasek1.448980LOct 6 · 11:20A. Langer3.007111281P. Benes1.3611714113
J. Vonasek10
LOct 8 · 09:25J. Vonasek2.5091191192V. Hejda Jr1.50115119113LOct 8 · 07:55A. Langer2.6311811113J. Vonasek1.44711881LOct 8 · 07:25O. Fiklik1.8311119113J. Vonasek1.83691171WOct 7 · 10:23J. Vonasek1.67951111113V. Hejda Jr2.1011115952WOct 7 · 09:25O. Fiklik1.8310480J. Vonasek1.831211113WOct 7 · 08:25J. Vonasek1.613111110113V. Hejda Jr2.2011851292WOct 7 · 06:55A. Langer2.63711681J. Vonasek1.4411711113WOct 6 · 13:25M. Brozek1.67118681J. Vonasek2.1091111113LOct 6 · 12:20A. Langer2.631111113J. Vonasek1.448980WOct 6 · 11:50M. Brozek1.44611121162J. Vonasek2.631191013113
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