TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Vonasek vs Vaclav Hejda Jr 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911115911119911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:24 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeVaclav Hejda Jr to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Vonasek above · Vaclav Hejda Jr below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 96 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Vaclav Hejda Jr at 60.1%
96 points played in total.
H2H Jan Vonasek 59–46 Vaclav Hejda Jr Vaclav Hejda Jr has won 46 of their 105 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2460.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 6.6pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Hejda Jr
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
59-46 in 105
Vonasek
Wrong
gap of 13 in 105, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vonasek 1648 vs Hejda Jr 1577
Vonasek
Wrong
both rated, 71 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vonasek 60% vs Hejda Jr 40%
Vonasek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vonasek 60% vs Hejda Jr 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vonasek -2 · Hejda Jr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Hejda Jr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hejda Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVonasek 2.50 / Hejda Jr 1.50
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Hejda Jr)-6.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13261936
Vonasek2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 68 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back18% 18 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 57
Hejda Jr1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 47 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it69% 34 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVonasek6wins
AwayHejda Jr4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVonasek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVonasek80%4 of 5
AwayHejda Jr60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vonasek5Hejda Jr5n = 10split evenly
S2Vonasek3Hejda Jr7n = 10Hejda Jr took 7 of 10
S3Vonasek9Hejda Jr1n = 10Vonasek took 9 of 10
S4Vonasek2Hejda Jr5n = 7Hejda Jr took 5 of 7
S5Vonasek3Hejda Jr1n = 4Vonasek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVonasekHejda JrV − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.339.4+2.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVonasekHejda JrBasisWin rate · lifetime368 / 734 vs 381 / 77650.1%49.1%368 / 734 vs 381 / 776Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
Hejda JrVonasek 2.50/Hejda Jr 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Hejda Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hejda Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 10:23J. Vonasek47951111113V. Hejda Jr4111115952
WOct 7 · 08:25J. Vonasek463111110113V. Hejda Jr4511851292
LSep 30 · 08:25J. Vonasek4491311111V. Hejda Jr4711158133
WSep 29 · 10:50J. Vonasek521191110113V. Hejda Jr4261161272
LSep 24 · 09:25J. Vonasek48128111162V. Hejda Jr531011813113
WSep 18 · 08:55J. Vonasek331111113V. Hejda Jr237880
LSep 16 · 07:55J. Vonasek3811611101V. Hejda Jr4313117123
LSep 14 · 10:50J. Vonasek29111080V. Hejda Jr361312113
WSep 2 · 10:50J. Vonasek43111011113V. Hejda Jr31712571
WAug 31 · 10:20J. Vonasek431511173V. Hejda Jr33135150
J. Vonasek10
LOct 8 · 10:10A. Langer2.201111153J. Vonasek1.6165130LOct 8 · 07:55A. Langer2.6311811113J. Vonasek1.44711881LOct 8 · 07:25O. Fiklik1.8311119113J. Vonasek1.83691171WOct 7 · 10:23J. Vonasek1.67951111113V. Hejda Jr2.1011115952WOct 7 · 09:25O. Fiklik1.8310480J. Vonasek1.831211113WOct 7 · 08:25J. Vonasek1.613111110113V. Hejda Jr2.2011851292WOct 7 · 06:55A. Langer2.63711681J. Vonasek1.4411711113WOct 6 · 13:25M. Brozek1.67118681J. Vonasek2.1091111113LOct 6 · 12:20A. Langer2.631111113J. Vonasek1.448980WOct 6 · 11:50M. Brozek1.44611121162J. Vonasek2.631191013113
V. Hejda Jr10
WOct 8 · 08:25V. Hejda Jr2.2511112113O. Fiklik1.57891181LOct 8 · 06:55A. Langer1.911111612113V. Hejda Jr1.8044111442LOct 7 · 10:23J. Vonasek1.67951111113V. Hejda Jr2.1011115952WOct 7 · 08:55A. Langer2.25461191V. Hejda Jr1.5711119113LOct 7 · 08:25J. Vonasek1.613111110113V. Hejda Jr2.2011851292WOct 7 · 07:25V. Hejda Jr2.3811611133O. Fiklik1.537119111LSep 30 · 10:29A. Langer1.83101111113V. Hejda Jr1.83125471LSep 30 · 08:55A. Langer1.8311115113V. Hejda Jr1.83881161WSep 30 · 08:25J. Vonasek1.7391311111V. Hejda Jr2.0011158133WSep 30 · 07:25V. Hejda Jr2.6312811113O. Fiklik1.441011391
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