Martin Filipek vs Radek Muller 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupCzech 2 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Martin Filipek

Home

1.73

At publish

Lost last 5

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Lost last 5

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

115311611118119

Radek Muller

Away

2.00

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:53 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%

Graded at full time

Martin Filipek to win

54.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingMartin Filipek above · Radek Muller below

Set 1 · 11-5

Set 2 · 3-11

Set 3 · 6-11

Set 4 · 11-8

Set 5 · 11-9

Point 86 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Martin Filipek at 54.5%

86 points played in total.

H2H Martin Filipek 22–16 Radek Muller Radek Muller has won 16 of their 38 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Filipek

Filipek 1.73/Muller 2.00

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54.5%

Filipek · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Filipek won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 07:53

54.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727

short by 3.4pp

57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Filipek

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

22-16 in 38

Filipek

Correct

gap of 6 in 38, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Filipek 1457 vs Muller 1434

Filipek

Correct

both rated, 23 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Filipek 0% vs Muller 40%

Muller

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Filipek 20% vs Muller 40%

Muller

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Filipek -5 · Muller -1

Filipek

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Filipek) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Filipek: form 0%, the price implies 58%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsFilipek 1.727 / Muller 2.00

Signal prob.55% / 46%

Edge (Filipek)-3.4pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeFilipek6wins

AwayMuller4wins

4 of 10 to a deciderFilipek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeFilipek85.7%6 of 7

AwayMuller100%3 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Filipek7Muller3n = 10Filipek took 7 of 10

S2Filipek5Muller5n = 10split evenly

S3Filipek5Muller5n = 10split evenly

S4Filipek2Muller5n = 7Muller took 5 of 7

S5Filipek3Muller1n = 4Filipek took 3 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricFilipekMullerF − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.338.0+2.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricFilipekMullerBasisWin rate · lifetime276 / 619 vs 164 / 33244.6%49.4%276 / 619 vs 164 / 332Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.6per match

TT Cup · #13282072

Filipek1.73

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 5

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite57% won 52 of 92

Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23

Up 1–0, closes it76% 40 of 53

Muller2.00

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog39% won 14 of 36

Down 0–1, comes back21% 4 of 19

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8

Martin Filipek vs Radek Muller 3-2 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Martin Filipek vs Radek Muller 3-2 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.