Radek Muller vs Filip Marat 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupCzech 2 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Radek Muller

Home

1.73

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 2

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

119911911114114

Filip Marat

Away

2.00

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:00 and never touched: 63.7% is still 63.7%

Graded at full time

Radek Muller to win

63.7%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

Sent to Pro: Radek Muller @ 1.50 · Won

How it is goingRadek Muller above · Filip Marat below

Set 1 · 11-9

Set 2 · 9-11

Set 3 · 9-11

Set 4 · 11-4

Set 5 · 11-4

Point 90 set 5, 11-4 · our read held Radek Muller at 63.7%

90 points played in total.

H2H Radek Muller 10–5 Filip Marat Filip Marat has won 5 of their 15 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Muller

Muller 1.73/Marat 2.00

Hit

What we said

63.7%

Muller · sealed before the serve

Sent to Pro: Radek Muller @ 1.50 · Won

What happened

3–2

Muller won

The pick

Sealed 08:00

Sent to Pro: Radek Muller @ 1.50 · Won

63.7%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727

clears by 5.8pp

57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Muller

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

10-5 in 15

Muller

Correct

gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Muller 1424 vs Marat 1432

Marat

Wrong

both rated, 8 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Muller 40% vs Marat 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Muller 30% vs Marat 50%

Marat

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Muller -2 · Marat -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.

Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Muller) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Muller: form 40%, the price implies 58%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMuller 1.727 / Marat 2.00

Signal prob.64% / 36%

Edge (Muller)+5.8pp

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeMuller7wins

AwayMarat3wins

4 of 10 to a deciderMuller leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMuller83.3%5 of 6

AwayMarat50%2 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Muller6Marat4n = 10Muller took 6 of 10

S2Muller5Marat5n = 10split evenly

S3Muller8Marat2n = 10Muller took 8 of 10

S4Muller5Marat3n = 8Muller took 5 of 8

S5Muller2Marat2n = 4split evenly

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricMullerMaratMuller − MaratBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.536.9+3.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMullerMaratBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 333 vs 227 / 49949.3%45.5%164 / 333 vs 227 / 499Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.1per match

TT Cup · #13281882

Muller1.73

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite50% won 33 of 66

Up 2–0, closes it86% 18 of 21

Up 1–0, closes it75% 27 of 36

Marat2.00

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog45% won 46 of 103

Down 0–1, comes back38% 23 of 60

Down 0–2, comes back27% 9 of 33

Radek Muller vs Filip Marat 3-2 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Radek Muller vs Filip Marat 3-2 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.