TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Radek Muller vs Martin Filipek 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
17151198111311––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:49 and never touched: 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeMartin Filipek to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Muller above · Martin Filipek below
Set 1 · 17-15
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 95 set 4, 13-11 · our read held Martin Filipek at 61.3%
95 points played in total.
H2H Radek Muller 15–22 Martin Filipek Radek Muller has won 15 of their 37 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 07:4961.3%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 0.6pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Filipek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-22 in 37
Filipek
Wrong
gap of 7 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Muller 1418 vs Filipek 1521
Filipek
Wrong
both rated, 103 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muller 20% vs Filipek 60%
Filipek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muller 40% vs Filipek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Muller -3 · Filipek +1
Muller
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Filipek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Filipek form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuller 2.20 / Filipek 1.615
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Filipek)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13251664
Muller2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 13 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back21% 4 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Filipek1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 53 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it77% 41 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMuller3wins
AwayFilipek7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFilipek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMullern = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayFilipek87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Muller2Filipek8n = 10Filipek took 8 of 10
S2Muller5Filipek5n = 10split evenly
S3Muller5Filipek5n = 10split evenly
S4Muller4Filipek3n = 7Muller took 4 of 7
S5Muller1Filipek3n = 4Filipek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMullerFilipekM − FBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.639.6−3.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMullerFilipekBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 332 vs 275 / 61449.4%44.8%164 / 332 vs 275 / 614Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FilipekMuller 2.20/Filipek 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.3%
Filipek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Muller won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 08:55R. Muller269890M. Filipek331111113
LSep 14 · 08:55R. Muller3975111152M. Filipek49111197113
LSep 7 · 10:04R. Muller176470M. Filipek331111113
WSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller46111311113M. Filipek35915471
WAug 12 · 12:55R. Muller46511811113M. Filipek4311711772
WJul 17 · 08:55R. Muller341111123M. Filipek2789100
LJul 7 · 22:00R. Muller516131111102M. Filipek50111566123
LJul 7 · 19:25R. Muller30611671M. Filipek4211911113
LApr 30 · 10:03R. Muller4231111982M. Filipek45117511113
LApr 30 · 08:55R. Muller356111081M. Filipek3911512113
R. Muller10
LOct 6 · 08:55R. Muller2.0061161182F. Balcar1.73116119113LOct 6 · 06:55R. Muller1.73115971P. Chlumsky2.0091111113LSep 29 · 22:03R. Muller1.6151171192J. Cousin2.20113118113LSep 29 · 21:25J. Cousin2.50918511123R. Muller1.501116115102WSep 29 · 20:25R. Muller1.50116711113T. Rein2.5081111392LSep 29 · 18:55B. Budik1.5781111113R. Muller2.25119891WSep 27 · 17:25R. Muller1.4411116143T. Rein2.637811121WSep 27 · 16:50T. Rein2.3811612372R. Muller1.536111011113LSep 27 · 15:50R. Muller1.67611101182J. Sebl2.10116128113LSep 27 · 14:20J. Dohnal2.001111113R. Muller1.739990
M. Filipek10
LOct 6 · 09:25M. Filipek2.251411211132P. Chlumsky1.571261113153WOct 6 · 07:25F. Balcar1.831091113122M. Filipek1.831211711143LOct 5 · 14:35J. Vonasek1.3011123123M. Filipek3.4071011101WOct 5 · 13:25M. Filipek1.571111113A. Kral2.259830WOct 5 · 11:55O. Fiklik1.5071161182M. Filipek2.50115116113LOct 5 · 11:25J. Vonasek1.441112123M. Filipek2.63810100LOct 5 · 10:33M. Filipek1.61641151A. Kral2.2011117113WOct 5 · 08:55F. Marat1.733111210112M. Filipek2.001181012133LOct 5 · 08:25P. Chlumsky1.61119811113M. Filipek2.2031111382WOct 5 · 07:25M. Filipek1.7311611113A. Kral2.00811891
Upcoming Matches
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M. Filipek
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