TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Filipek vs Adam Kral 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911711118114911
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:19 and never touched: 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeMartin Filipek to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Martin Filipek @ 1.67 · Lost
How it is goingMartin Filipek above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 92 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Martin Filipek at 57.4%
92 points played in total.
H2H Martin Filipek 51–41 Adam Kral Adam Kral has won 41 of their 92 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 11:1957.4%Our read54.1%to break even at 1.85
clears by 3.3pp54.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.85 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Kral
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
51-41 in 92
Filipek
Wrong
gap of 10 in 92, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Filipek 1503 vs Kral 1472
Filipek
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Filipek 40% vs Kral 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Filipek 40% vs Kral 60%
Kral
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Filipek -1 · Kral +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Filipek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kral form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFilipek 1.85 / Kral 1.85
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Filipek)+3.3pp
TT Cup · #13251779
Filipek1.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kral1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFilipek7wins
AwayKral3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFilipek leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFilipek87.5%7 of 8
AwayKraln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Filipek8Kral2n = 10Filipek took 8 of 10
S2Filipek7Kral3n = 10Filipek took 7 of 10
S3Filipek6Kral4n = 10Filipek took 6 of 10
S4Filipek2Kral4n = 6Kral took 4 of 6
S5Filipek2Kral1n = 3Filipek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFilipekKralF − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.936.2+2.7per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFilipekKralBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 619 vs 411 / 79044.8%52%277 / 619 vs 411 / 790Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.540.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FilipekFilipek 1.85/Kral 1.85
Miss
What we said
57.4%
Filipek · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Martin Filipek @ 1.67 · Lost
What happened
2–3
Kral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 13:25M. Filipek331111113A. Kral209830
LOct 5 · 10:33M. Filipek26641151A. Kral4011117113
WOct 5 · 07:25M. Filipek3911611113A. Kral36811891
WSep 29 · 10:30M. Filipek361312113A. Kral30111090
WSep 29 · 08:25M. Filipek331111113A. Kral228860
LSep 23 · 10:30M. Filipek4211118392A. Kral41261111113
LSep 23 · 09:25M. Filipek34911861A. Kral4111811113
WSep 21 · 12:55M. Filipek5811111311123A. Kral54971513102
WSep 17 · 12:55M. Filipek361111143A. Kral2796120
WSep 14 · 10:35M. Filipek52148811113A. Kral51121111982
M. Filipek10
LOct 6 · 13:25L. Moravec2.20911911133M. Filipek1.61116119112LOct 6 · 10:55F. Balcar1.731111113M. Filipek2.008990WOct 6 · 10:14F. Balcar1.735880M. Filipek2.001111113LOct 6 · 09:25M. Filipek2.251411211132P. Chlumsky1.571261113153LOct 6 · 07:55R. Muller2.2017118133M. Filipek1.6115911111WOct 6 · 07:25F. Balcar1.831091113122M. Filipek1.831211711143LOct 5 · 14:35J. Vonasek1.3011123123M. Filipek3.4071011101WOct 5 · 13:25M. Filipek1.571111113A. Kral2.259830WOct 5 · 11:55O. Fiklik1.5071161182M. Filipek2.50115116113LOct 5 · 11:25J. Vonasek1.441112123M. Filipek2.63810100
A. Kral10
LOct 6 · 12:55F. Balcar2.20811511113A. Kral1.6111811802WOct 6 · 11:25A. Kral1.5011114113L. Moravec2.50791141LOct 5 · 14:05A. Kral1.7311111612102O. Fiklik2.00851814123LOct 5 · 13:25M. Filipek1.571111113A. Kral2.259830LOct 5 · 12:25A. Kral2.2511111411142J. Vonasek1.57813166163WOct 5 · 10:55O. Fiklik1.578670A. Kral2.251111113WOct 5 · 10:33M. Filipek1.61641151A. Kral2.2011117113WOct 5 · 09:25A. Kral2.25101511113P. Chlumsky1.571213781WOct 5 · 07:55F. Marat1.8387110A. Kral1.831111133LOct 5 · 07:25M. Filipek1.7311611113A. Kral2.00811891
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