TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ladislav Moravec vs Martin Filipek 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111169111191311
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:25 and never touched: 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeMartin Filipek to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Martin Filipek @ 1.73 · Lost
How it is goingLadislav Moravec above · Martin Filipek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 101 set 5, 13-11 · our read held Martin Filipek at 56.9%
101 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Moravec 11–16 Martin Filipek Ladislav Moravec has won 11 of their 27 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 12:2556.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 5.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Filipek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-16 in 27
Filipek
Wrong
gap of 5 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1450 vs Filipek 1491
Filipek
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 40% vs Filipek 20%
Moravec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 50% vs Filipek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec -2 · Filipek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Filipek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Filipek form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 2.20 / Filipek 1.615
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Filipek)-5.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13251847
Moravec2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 30 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back20% 8 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 23
Filipek1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 53 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it77% 41 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec5wins
AwayFilipek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec60%3 of 5
AwayFilipek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec5Filipek5n = 10split evenly
S2Moravec6Filipek4n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S3Moravec7Filipek3n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10
S4Moravec1Filipek5n = 6Filipek took 5 of 6
S5Moravec2Filipek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecFilipekM − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.037.00.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecFilipekBasisWin rate · lifetime120 / 286 vs 277 / 62042%44.7%120 / 286 vs 277 / 620Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FilipekMoravec 2.20/Filipek 1.61
Miss
What we said
56.9%
Filipek · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Martin Filipek @ 1.73 · Lost
What happened
3–2
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 13:38L. Moravec331111113M. Filipek198560
LOct 1 · 11:20L. Moravec35981171M. Filipek4211119113
LSep 17 · 11:55L. Moravec49139111062M. Filipek491111412113
WAug 19 · 10:55L. Moravec45611116113M. Filipek3811571142
WAug 12 · 11:25L. Moravec371111153M. Filipek2658130
WAug 11 · 14:20L. Moravec44511116113M. Filipek4411961172
LAug 4 · 12:55L. Moravec28811271M. Filipek4211911113
LJul 9 · 18:05L. Moravec194780M. Filipek331111113
LJul 9 · 16:55L. Moravec4611961192M. Filipek51911119113
WJun 30 · 13:25L. Moravec341211113M. Filipek2610790
L. Moravec10
WOct 6 · 14:05L. Moravec1.831113910113M. Filipek1.83711111282LOct 6 · 11:55F. Balcar2.2521111133L. Moravec1.571158111LOct 6 · 11:25A. Kral1.5011114113L. Moravec2.50791141WOct 1 · 13:38M. Filipek1.738560L. Moravec2.001111113WOct 1 · 12:20L. Moravec3.00871212113J. Vonasek1.361111101092LOct 1 · 11:20L. Moravec2.00981171M. Filipek1.7311119113LOct 1 · 10:20L. Moravec2.757101111112A. Langer1.40111247133WSep 29 · 14:30L. Moravec1.601111113F. Balcar2.209390WSep 29 · 13:25P. Chlumsky1.83119551L. Moravec1.8351111113LSep 29 · 12:25L. Moravec1.73691891F. Marat2.00111116113
M. Filipek10
LOct 6 · 14:05L. Moravec1.831113910113M. Filipek1.83711111282LOct 6 · 12:25M. Filipek1.8597111192A. Kral1.85111184113LOct 6 · 10:55F. Balcar1.731111113M. Filipek2.008990WOct 6 · 10:14F. Balcar1.735880M. Filipek2.001111113LOct 6 · 09:25M. Filipek2.251411211132P. Chlumsky1.571261113153LOct 6 · 07:55R. Muller2.2017118133M. Filipek1.6115911111WOct 6 · 07:25F. Balcar1.831091113122M. Filipek1.831211711143LOct 5 · 14:35J. Vonasek1.3011123123M. Filipek3.4071011101LOct 1 · 13:38M. Filipek1.738560L. Moravec2.001111113WOct 1 · 11:20L. Moravec2.00981171M. Filipek1.7311119113
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