Jan Mecl Jr vs Jiri Ruzicka 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA12 · Liberec

Played Oct 12Finished

Jan Mecl Jr

Home

1.62

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

14128111121210––

Jiri Ruzicka

Away

2.20

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:28 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%

Graded at full time

Jan Mecl Jr to win

58.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingJan Mecl Jr above · Jiri Ruzicka below

Set 1 · 14-12

Set 2 · 8-11

Set 3 · 11-2

Set 4 · 12-10

Point 80 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Jan Mecl Jr at 58.9%

80 points played in total.

H2H Jan Mecl Jr 41–17 Jiri Ruzicka Jiri Ruzicka has won 17 of their 58 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3Same sideHead to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Mecl Jr

Mecl Jr 1.61/Ruzicka 2.20

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

58.9%

Mecl Jr · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Mecl Jr won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 14:28

58.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615

short by 3.0pp

61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)

What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.61 (58%)

Mecl Jr

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

41-17 in 58

Mecl Jr

Correct

gap of 24 in 58, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Mecl Jr 1817 vs Ruzicka 1772

Mecl Jr

Correct

both rated, 45 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Mecl Jr 80% vs Ruzicka 60%

Mecl Jr

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Mecl Jr 70% vs Ruzicka 50%

Mecl Jr

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Mecl Jr +1 · Ruzicka -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Mecl Jr) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Ruzicka: form 60%, the price implies 45%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMecl Jr 1.615 / Ruzicka 2.20

Signal prob.59% / 41%

Edge (Mecl Jr)-3.0pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeMecl Jr7wins

AwayRuzicka3wins

2 of 10 to a deciderMecl Jr leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMecl Jr83.3%5 of 6

AwayRuzicka50%2 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Mecl Jr6Ruzicka4n = 10Mecl Jr took 6 of 10

S2Mecl Jr8Ruzicka2n = 10Mecl Jr took 8 of 10

S3Mecl Jr6Ruzicka4n = 10Mecl Jr took 6 of 10

S4Mecl Jr6Ruzicka2n = 8Mecl Jr took 6 of 8

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home550%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricMecl JrRuzickaM − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.837.5+6.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMecl JrRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime375 / 721 vs 697 / 141952%49.1%375 / 721 vs 697 / 1419Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.8per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13278340

Mecl Jr1.61

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 09)

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

As favourite60% won 129 of 216

Up 2–0, closes it90% 65 of 72

Up 1–0, closes it79% 95 of 121

Ruzicka2.20

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 09)

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog40% won 132 of 331

Down 0–1, comes back20% 42 of 208

Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 109

Jan Mecl Jr vs Jiri Ruzicka 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Jan Mecl Jr vs Jiri Ruzicka 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.