TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Urbaniec vs Jan Mecl Jr 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
31110121311116911
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:20 and never touched — 59.1% is still 59.1%
Graded at full timeJan Mecl Jr to win
59.1%
59.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Urbaniec above · Jan Mecl Jr below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 97 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jan Mecl Jr at 59.1%
97 points played in total.
H2H Radim Urbaniec 8–16 Jan Mecl Jr Radim Urbaniec has won 8 of their 24 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 1h before this match
Mecl Jr beat Urbaniec 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:20What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Mecl Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-16 in 24
Mecl Jr
Correct
gap of 8 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urbaniec 1846 vs Mecl Jr 1761
Urbaniec
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urbaniec 80% vs Mecl Jr 60%
Urbaniec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urbaniec 80% vs Mecl Jr 60%
Urbaniec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Urbaniec -1 · Mecl Jr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Mecl Jr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urbaniec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrbaniec 2.20 / Mecl Jr 1.60
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Mecl Jr)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13208474
Urbaniec2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 181 of 458
Down 0–1, comes back22% 57 of 258
Down 0–2, comes back7% 10 of 143
Mecl Jr1.60
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 124 of 207
Up 2–0, closes it93% 63 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it80% 91 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrbaniec2wins
AwayMecl Jr8wins
7 of 10 to a deciderMecl Jr leads 8–2, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrbaniec33.3%1 of 3
AwayMecl Jr85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urbaniec3Mecl Jr7n = 10Mecl Jr took 7 of 10
S2Urbaniec3Mecl Jr7n = 10Mecl Jr took 7 of 10
S3Urbaniec4Mecl Jr6n = 10Mecl Jr took 6 of 10
S4Urbaniec8Mecl Jr1n = 9Urbaniec took 8 of 9
S5Urbaniec1Mecl Jr6n = 7Mecl Jr took 6 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbaniecMecl JrU − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.046.0−5.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbaniecMecl JrBasisWin rate · lifetime670 / 1311 vs 376 / 72451.1%51.9%670 / 1311 vs 376 / 724Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.740.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
Mecl JrUrbaniec 2.20/Mecl Jr 1.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.1%
Mecl Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mecl Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 20:30R. Urbaniec4214381162J. Mecl Jr541211119113
WSep 27 · 16:30R. Urbaniec501212411113J. Mecl Jr51141011792
LSep 26 · 21:30R. Urbaniec381011891J. Mecl Jr3912511113
LSep 26 · 18:00R. Urbaniec43712111212J. Mecl Jr531114710113
WSep 25 · 21:30R. Urbaniec4011117113J. Mecl Jr34781181
LSep 25 · 20:00R. Urbaniec48118811102J. Mecl Jr51811119123
LAug 8 · 10:00R. Urbaniec3836111172J. Mecl Jr42111154113
LAug 6 · 11:30R. Urbaniec4068111142J. Mecl Jr46111167113
LJul 17 · 13:00R. Urbaniec30311160J. Mecl Jr421113183
LJul 17 · 11:30R. Urbaniec4186111152J. Mecl Jr48111187113
R. Urbaniec10
LSep 27 · 20:30J. Mecl Jr1.531211119113R. Urbaniec2.3814381162WSep 27 · 19:30R. Urbaniec1.731111113F. Pusch2.004890WSep 27 · 18:30O. Svacha2.20511971R. Urbaniec1.6111511113WSep 27 · 17:30R. Urbaniec2.021111113F. Pusch1.703560WSep 27 · 16:30J. Mecl Jr1.53141011792R. Urbaniec2.381212411113WSep 27 · 15:30R. Urbaniec2.75111111123A. Barton1.401368101WSep 27 · 14:30F. Pusch1.67131157112R. Urbaniec2.101181111133LSep 26 · 21:30J. Mecl Jr1.5212511113R. Urbaniec2.351011891WSep 26 · 20:30R. Urbaniec1.5311114143T. Franek2.386511121WSep 26 · 19:00R. Urbaniec1.611111117113O. Svacha2.2013871152
J. Mecl Jr10
WSep 27 · 20:30J. Mecl Jr1.531211119113R. Urbaniec2.3814381162LSep 27 · 19:00J. Mecl Jr1.4411115892O. Svacha2.63831111113WSep 27 · 18:00F. Pusch2.509650J. Mecl Jr1.501111113WSep 27 · 17:00A. Barton1.851191216112J. Mecl Jr1.854111414133LSep 27 · 16:30J. Mecl Jr1.53141011792R. Urbaniec2.381212411113LSep 27 · 15:00J. Mecl Jr1.5791115962F. Pusch2.251161311113LSep 27 · 14:00A. Barton1.91111177113J. Mecl Jr1.8098111172WSep 26 · 21:30J. Mecl Jr1.5212511113R. Urbaniec2.351011891WSep 26 · 20:00J. Mecl Jr1.501211123O. Svacha2.50108100WSep 26 · 19:30T. Franek2.6381280J. Mecl Jr1.441114113
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