TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vasiliy Smyk vs Oleksandr Lipeiko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117115711711118
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:54 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Lipeiko to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Oleksandr Lipeiko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 89 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Oleksandr Lipeiko at 59.3%
89 points played in total.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 14–21 Oleksandr Lipeiko Vasiliy Smyk has won 14 of their 35 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:5459.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Lipeiko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-21 in 35
Lipeiko
Wrong
gap of 7 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1393 vs Lipeiko 1373
Smyk
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 0% vs Lipeiko 20%
Lipeiko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 40% vs Lipeiko 20%
Smyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk -5 · Lipeiko -1
Smyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Lipeiko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lipeiko form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 2.25 / Lipeiko 1.571
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Lipeiko)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276817
Smyk2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 09)
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 75 of 196
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 64
Lipeiko1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 05)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 63 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it88% 36 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it77% 53 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyk5wins
AwayLipeiko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyk80%4 of 5
AwayLipeiko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk5Lipeiko5n = 10split evenly
S2Smyk4Lipeiko6n = 10Lipeiko took 6 of 10
S3Smyk5Lipeiko5n = 10split evenly
S4Smyk4Lipeiko5n = 9Lipeiko took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmykLipeikoS − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.641.4−0.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykLipeikoBasisWin rate · lifetime265 / 633 vs 251 / 52541.9%47.8%265 / 633 vs 251 / 525Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LipeikoSmyk 2.25/Lipeiko 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Lipeiko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Smyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 17:00V. Smyk38871941O. Lipeiko50111117113
LSep 20 · 15:30V. Smyk33711781O. Lipeiko4011711113
LAug 25 · 14:10V. Smyk35891171O. Lipeiko4011117113
LAug 13 · 14:30V. Smyk38119991O. Lipeiko4181111113
LAug 11 · 13:10V. Smyk386129111O. Lipeiko45111011133
WAug 8 · 16:00V. Smyk517111011123O. Lipeiko49117129102
WJun 28 · 06:50V. Smyk4112711113O. Lipeiko331011841
WMay 31 · 08:20V. Smyk501111611113O. Lipeiko5191311992
WMay 23 · 21:20V. Smyk411911113O. Lipeiko3317880
WMay 18 · 08:20V. Smyk4111811113O. Lipeiko32611691
V. Smyk10
LOct 11 · 14:30V. Kondratenko3.001111113V. Smyk1.362810LOct 9 · 12:20V. Smyk1.918560M. Stetsenko1.801111113LOct 9 · 10:20O. Ovsiienko2.7511911113V. Smyk1.40511961LOct 9 · 09:20V. Smyk1.917111081E. Populovskyi1.8011812113LOct 9 · 08:20S. Skhabitskiy2.201111917113V. Smyk1.6158111972LOct 9 · 06:50V. Smyk1.80111481182O. Mytsyk1.91816117113WSep 30 · 18:30V. Smyk1.501111113O. Ovsiienko2.505550WSep 30 · 16:30O. Mytsyk1.73127691V. Smyk2.00101111113LSep 30 · 15:30V. Smyk1.8081116972M. Stetsenko1.911191411113WSep 30 · 14:30S. Baranskyi2.20115671V. Smyk1.6141111113
O. Lipeiko10
LOct 11 · 14:00O. Lipeiko1.8311281182O. Mytsyk1.83611119103LOct 5 · 12:20O. Lipeiko1.7311680M. Stetsenko2.001311113WOct 5 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy2.387230O. Lipeiko1.531111113LOct 5 · 09:20O. Lipeiko1.833820O. Mytsyk1.831111113LOct 5 · 08:20O. Ovsiienko3.001111153O. Lipeiko1.3699130LOct 5 · 06:50O. Lipeiko1.6112911121V. Melnykov2.2014119143LSep 29 · 11:35O. Lipeiko2.631111451O. Volynets1.4471311113WSep 29 · 09:35O. Osadchyi1.61115151322O. Lipeiko2.20611171133LSep 29 · 08:35O. Lipeiko1.61119111172A. Kovalenko2.20611513113LSep 29 · 07:35I. Emets1.44111011113O. Lipeiko2.63812581
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