TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Lipeiko vs Oleksandr Mytsyk 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116211811119810
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:56 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Mytsyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Lipeiko above · Oleksandr Mytsyk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-10
Point 87 set 5, 8-10 · our read held Oleksandr Mytsyk at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Lipeiko 31–37 Oleksandr Mytsyk Oleksandr Lipeiko has won 31 of their 68 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5654.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Mytsyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
31-37 in 68
Mytsyk
Correct
gap of 6 in 68, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lipeiko 1363 vs Mytsyk 1434
Mytsyk
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lipeiko 20% vs Mytsyk 100%
Mytsyk
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lipeiko 20% vs Mytsyk 80%
Mytsyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lipeiko -2 · Mytsyk +7
Mytsyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Mytsyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mytsyk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLipeiko 1.833 / Mytsyk 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mytsyk)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13276823
Lipeiko1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Mytsyk1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLipeiko4wins
AwayMytsyk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMytsyk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLipeiko60%3 of 5
AwayMytsyk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lipeiko5Mytsyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Lipeiko4Mytsyk6n = 10Mytsyk took 6 of 10
S3Lipeiko3Mytsyk7n = 10Mytsyk took 7 of 10
S4Lipeiko4Mytsyk3n = 7Lipeiko took 4 of 7
S5Lipeiko2Mytsyk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLipeikoMytsykL − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.338.2−2.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLipeikoMytsykBasisWin rate · lifetime251 / 526 vs 535 / 107447.7%49.8%251 / 526 vs 535 / 1074Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MytsykLipeiko 1.83/Mytsyk 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mytsyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mytsyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 09:20O. Lipeiko133820O. Mytsyk331111113
LSep 28 · 09:20O. Lipeiko303511111O. Mytsyk4211117133
WSep 17 · 06:50O. Lipeiko3811412113O. Mytsyk316111041
WJul 13 · 12:50O. Lipeiko45111166113O. Mytsyk4458111192
LJul 8 · 08:35O. Lipeiko3911361182O. Mytsyk50811119113
LJun 29 · 06:50O. Lipeiko2911990O. Mytsyk351311113
WJun 24 · 00:10O. Lipeiko48711811113O. Mytsyk3811411752
LMay 31 · 09:20O. Lipeiko44111161152O. Mytsyk49136118113
WMay 23 · 16:50O. Lipeiko331111113O. Mytsyk205690
LMay 14 · 05:30O. Lipeiko34118691O. Mytsyk4071111113
O. Lipeiko10
LOct 11 · 13:00V. Smyk2.25111177113O. Lipeiko1.5775111182LOct 5 · 12:20O. Lipeiko1.7311680M. Stetsenko2.001311113WOct 5 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy2.387230O. Lipeiko1.531111113LOct 5 · 09:20O. Lipeiko1.833820O. Mytsyk1.831111113LOct 5 · 08:20O. Ovsiienko3.001111153O. Lipeiko1.3699130LOct 5 · 06:50O. Lipeiko1.6112911121V. Melnykov2.2014119143LSep 29 · 11:35O. Lipeiko2.631111451O. Volynets1.4471311113WSep 29 · 09:35O. Osadchyi1.61115151322O. Lipeiko2.20611171133LSep 29 · 08:35O. Lipeiko1.61119111172A. Kovalenko2.20611513113LSep 29 · 07:35I. Emets1.44111011113O. Lipeiko2.63812581
O. Mytsyk10
WOct 11 · 12:00V. Melnykov2.2581111882O. Mytsyk1.57118911113WOct 9 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.001111711113E. Populovskyi1.7313611492WOct 9 · 10:50S. Skhabitskiy2.10116861O. Mytsyk1.6781111113WOct 9 · 08:50O. Ovsiienko1.80136111172O. Mytsyk1.91151135113WOct 9 · 07:50O. Mytsyk2.5091112113M. Stetsenko1.501181071WOct 9 · 06:50V. Smyk1.80111481182O. Mytsyk1.91816117113WOct 7 · 12:05O. Mytsyk1.4011715113S. Semenets2.755111361LOct 7 · 10:05V. Kondratenko2.251111108133O. Mytsyk1.57931211112LOct 7 · 08:05V. Mukhin3.001111133O. Mytsyk1.3657110WOct 5 · 09:20O. Lipeiko1.833820O. Mytsyk1.831111113
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