TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Kostiantyn Tsoi vs Volodymyr Mykhalchenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811511116611––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:30 and never touched: 84.6% is still 84.6%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Mykhalchenko to win
84.6%
84.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKostiantyn Tsoi above · Volodymyr Mykhalchenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 69 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Volodymyr Mykhalchenko at 84.6%
69 points played in total.
H2H Kostiantyn Tsoi 1–11 Volodymyr Mykhalchenko Kostiantyn Tsoi has won 1 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:3084.6%Our read88.9%to break even at 1.125
short by 4.3pp88.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.125 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.13 (83%)
Mykhalchenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-11 in 12
Mykhalchenko
Correct
gap of 10 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tsoi 934 vs Mykhalchenko 1090
Mykhalchenko
Correct
both rated, 155 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tsoi 80% vs Mykhalchenko 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tsoi 70% vs Mykhalchenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tsoi +4 · Mykhalchenko +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 85% · Strong (leans Mykhalchenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tsoi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (18%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTsoi 5.50 / Mykhalchenko 1.125
Signal prob.15% / 85%
Edge (Mykhalchenko)-4.3pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276382
Tsoi5.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog13% won 3 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back5% 1 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Mykhalchenko1.13
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 54 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it85% 39 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTsoi1wins
AwayMykhalchenko9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMykhalchenko leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTsoin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMykhalchenko100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tsoi2Mykhalchenko8n = 10Mykhalchenko took 8 of 10
S2Tsoi2Mykhalchenko8n = 10Mykhalchenko took 8 of 10
S3Tsoi1Mykhalchenko8n = 9Mykhalchenko took 8 of 9
S4Tsoi1Mykhalchenko2n = 3Mykhalchenko took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away770%
These 10 meetings
MetricTsoiMykhalchenkoT − MBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match25.235.9−10.7per matchSweeps07−73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTsoiMykhalchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime33 / 94 vs 121 / 21135.1%57.4%33 / 94 vs 121 / 211Avg sets wonper match1.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match32.836.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MykhalchenkoTsoi 5.50/Mykhalchenko 1.13
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84.6%
Mykhalchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mykhalchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 11 · 07:35K. Tsoi30851161V. Mykhalchenko3911116113
LSep 6 · 06:05K. Tsoi163580V. Mykhalchenko331111113
LMay 9 · 14:30K. Tsoi237880V. Mykhalchenko331111113
WJan 18 · 07:05K. Tsoi45111112113V. Mykhalchenko36981451
LSep 27 · 05:30K. Tsoi1917110V. Mykhalchenko351111133
LSep 20 · 05:30K. Tsoi196670V. Mykhalchenko331111113
LAug 30 · 05:30K. Tsoi206950V. Mykhalchenko331111113
LAug 23 · 05:30K. Tsoi176470V. Mykhalchenko331111113
LAug 2 · 05:00K. Tsoi3811116912V. Mykhalchenko48691111113
K. Tsoi10
WOct 11 · 09:05K. Tsoi2.1011116113D. Kunchurov1.67991181WOct 11 · 05:35K. Tsoi1.251112113O. Riabuha3.7591070WOct 4 · 11:35K. Tsoi1.22111195143K. Vernudin4.00551111122WOct 4 · 09:34O. Riabuha2.384710K. Tsoi1.531111113WOct 4 · 08:35K. Tsoi1.737101111113O. Efimov2.0011121472LOct 4 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.3611118113K. Tsoi3.00471151WOct 4 · 06:05K. Tsoi2.25791211113D. Kunchurov1.57111110852LSep 26 · 11:30D. Kunchurov1.5711711113K. Tsoi2.25711661WSep 26 · 10:00K. Tsoi1.83131111113K. Vernudin1.83154551WSep 26 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko3.7511811862K. Tsoi1.25911511113
V. Mykhalchenko10
WOct 11 · 09:35O. Ponomarenko1.5771111402V. Mykhalchenko2.2511781123WOct 11 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.2811116113O. Riabuha3.50941191WOct 11 · 06:05V. Mykhalchenko1.361111113M. Tkalich3.005650WOct 7 · 19:00V. Mykhalchenko1.221111113O. Efimov4.003660WOct 7 · 17:00D. Kunchurov2.639911131V. Mykhalchenko1.4411119153LOct 7 · 15:00O. Ponomarenko1.441112511113V. Mykhalchenko2.6341411572WOct 7 · 14:00V. Mykhalchenko1.53113115113O. Miklukha2.3871171172LOct 7 · 13:00O. Stopin1.2511911113V. Mykhalchenko3.75911931LOct 3 · 12:05S. Osipov1.251111113V. Mykhalchenko3.758450WOct 3 · 10:35V. Mykhalchenko2.75111153113P. Ostrovskyi1.4027111192
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.