TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Kostiantyn Tsoi vs Dmytro Kunchurov 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Kostiantyn Tsoi
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7119111210118115
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:57 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeDmytro Kunchurov to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKostiantyn Tsoi above · Dmytro Kunchurov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 95 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Dmytro Kunchurov at 59.3%
95 points played in total.
H2H Kostiantyn Tsoi 23–26 Dmytro Kunchurov Kostiantyn Tsoi has won 23 of their 49 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5759.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kunchurov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
23-26 in 49
Kunchurov
Wrong
gap of 3 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tsoi 912 vs Kunchurov 952
Kunchurov
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tsoi 40% vs Kunchurov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tsoi 40% vs Kunchurov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tsoi -1 · Kunchurov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Kunchurov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kunchurov form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTsoi 2.25 / Kunchurov 1.571
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kunchurov)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240246
Tsoi2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 8 days ago (Sep 26) · back after a break
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog9% won 2 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Kunchurov1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 02)
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 35 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it88% 22 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it74% 28 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTsoi3wins
AwayKunchurov7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKunchurov leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTsoi66.7%2 of 3
AwayKunchurov85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tsoi3Kunchurov7n = 10Kunchurov took 7 of 10
S2Tsoi4Kunchurov6n = 10Kunchurov took 6 of 10
S3Tsoi2Kunchurov8n = 10Kunchurov took 8 of 10
S4Tsoi3Kunchurov4n = 7Kunchurov took 4 of 7
S5Tsoi2Kunchurov1n = 3Tsoi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricTsoiKunchurovT − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.740.2−6.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTsoiKunchurovBasisWin rate · lifetime29 / 92 vs 90 / 22831.5%39.5%29 / 92 vs 90 / 228Avg sets wonper match1.41.8per matchAvg pointsper match32.535.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KunchurovTsoi 2.25/Kunchurov 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Kunchurov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tsoi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 06:05K. Tsoi50791211113D. Kunchurov45111110852
LSep 26 · 11:30K. Tsoi30711661D. Kunchurov4011711113
LSep 6 · 08:05K. Tsoi166550D. Kunchurov331111113
LAug 15 · 05:00K. Tsoi2141070D. Kunchurov341112113
LJun 20 · 07:00K. Tsoi4211117492D. Kunchurov47771111113
LMay 9 · 18:30K. Tsoi385911131D. Kunchurov4611119153
LApr 18 · 06:35K. Tsoi337115101D. Kunchurov3911511123
LApr 11 · 11:30K. Tsoi158610D. Kunchurov331111113
WMar 29 · 08:35K. Tsoi521181111113D. Kunchurov5091113892
WMar 21 · 10:30K. Tsoi4011117113D. Kunchurov35871191
K. Tsoi10
LOct 4 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.3611118113K. Tsoi3.00471151LSep 26 · 11:30D. Kunchurov1.5711711113K. Tsoi2.25711661WSep 26 · 10:00K. Tsoi1.83131111113K. Vernudin1.83154551WSep 26 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko3.7511811862K. Tsoi1.25911511113LSep 26 · 06:00O. Ponomarenko1.401111113K. Tsoi2.759560LSep 26 · 05:00O. Stopin1.221411113K. Tsoi4.0012820LSep 6 · 12:05K. Tsoi3.501110871M. Tkalich1.2861211113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Zaiats1.80411841K. Tsoi1.9111411113LSep 6 · 08:05D. Kunchurov1.801111113K. Tsoi1.916550WSep 6 · 07:05K. Tsoi1.281211113S. Kuzko3.5010090
D. Kunchurov10
WOct 4 · 07:05D. Kunchurov2.1011411113K. Vernudin1.67511571WOct 2 · 19:00V. Mykhalchenko1.30107110D. Kunchurov3.401211133WOct 2 · 17:30D. Kunchurov1.221111113O. Efimov4.006870LOct 2 · 15:30M. Mykhailenko2.101371111113D. Kunchurov1.6515115682LOct 2 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko1.501111113D. Kunchurov2.509870LOct 2 · 12:30K. Vernudin1.8011119113D. Kunchurov1.91981151WSep 26 · 11:30D. Kunchurov1.5711711113K. Tsoi2.25711661LSep 26 · 09:30O. Stopin1.17119135113D. Kunchurov4.50711111162LSep 26 · 07:30O. Ponomarenko1.441111113D. Kunchurov2.638480WSep 6 · 08:05D. Kunchurov1.801111113K. Tsoi1.916550
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