TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Milan Flesar vs Jan Kabelka 3-1 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 44 - B4 · Prague
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171156111210––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:31 and never touched: 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeMilan Flesar to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Jan Kabelka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 73 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Milan Flesar at 58.2%
73 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 14–9 Jan Kabelka Jan Kabelka has won 9 of their 23 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Flesar beat Kabelka 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:3158.2%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 7.0pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Flesar
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-9 in 23
Flesar
Correct
gap of 5 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1544 vs Kabelka 1433
Flesar
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 80% vs Kabelka 60%
Flesar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 70% vs Kabelka 40%
Flesar
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar +4 · Kabelka +1
Flesar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Flesar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kabelka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 1.533 / Kabelka 2.375
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Flesar)-7.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13271587
Flesar1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 76 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it96% 48 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it78% 64 of 82
Kabelka2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog45% won 56 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back28% 20 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFlesar7wins
AwayKabelka3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFlesar leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesar87.5%7 of 8
AwayKabelkan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar8Kabelka2n = 10Flesar took 8 of 10
S2Flesar6Kabelka4n = 10Flesar took 6 of 10
S3Flesar5Kabelka5n = 10split evenly
S4Flesar5Kabelka3n = 8Flesar took 5 of 8
S5Flesar2Kabelka2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFlesarKabelkaF − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.237.5+5.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarKabelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime252 / 480 vs 148 / 30352.5%48.8%252 / 480 vs 148 / 303Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FlesarFlesar 1.53/Kabelka 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.2%
Flesar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 18:05M. Flesar47111186113J. Kabelka3738111142
WOct 6 · 18:35M. Flesar3811124113J. Kabelka355101191
WOct 4 · 18:35M. Flesar381116113J. Kabelka2871470
LAug 26 · 19:35M. Flesar35138861J. Kabelka44111111113
WAug 25 · 19:05M. Flesar341111123J. Kabelka1936100
LAug 14 · 15:35M. Flesar541411712102J. Kabelka551661110123
LAug 6 · 19:05M. Flesar4461111792J. Kabelka46114911113
WJul 23 · 21:50M. Flesar4013511113J. Kabelka361111861
WJul 23 · 18:35M. Flesar531113711113J. Kabelka4051511452
WJul 21 · 19:35M. Flesar49121511113J. Kabelka351017261
M. Flesar10
WOct 9 · 20:05M. Flesar1.801111113T. Motacek1.915940WOct 9 · 19:05M. Flesar2.2511101112113L. Vosyka1.5741291492WOct 9 · 18:05M. Flesar1.53111186113J. Kabelka2.3838111142WOct 8 · 21:05M. Flesar—1111113D. Hons—6770LOct 8 · 20:05M. Flesar2.001111117112D. Hons1.73135811133WOct 8 · 19:05M. Flesar1.57119611113M. Chmelicek2.2571111392LOct 8 · 18:05M. Flesar2.00410111392J. Martin1.731112911113LOct 6 · 21:39M. Flesar1.831177111T. Krcil1.8321111133WOct 6 · 20:05T. Krcil1.91115912112M. Flesar1.808111110133WOct 6 · 19:35J. Vidourek2.204970M. Flesar1.611111113
J. Kabelka10
WOct 9 · 20:35L. Vosyka1.539990J. Kabelka2.381111113LOct 9 · 19:35J. Kabelka2.10811711T. Motacek1.6711711113LOct 9 · 18:05M. Flesar1.53111186113J. Kabelka2.3838111142WOct 6 · 21:08J. Kabelka1.91511121113J. Vidourek1.80116101172WOct 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.25741111113J. Vidourek1.5711118992LOct 6 · 19:05T. Krcil1.44111110113J. Kabelka2.63481281LOct 6 · 18:35M. Flesar1.6711124113J. Kabelka2.105101191LOct 4 · 21:10J. Martin1.3311912113J. Kabelka3.259111071LOct 4 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.103670J. Martin1.671111113WOct 4 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.3012681162J. Kabelka3.401011118113
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