TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vitalii Mukhin vs Sergey Osipov 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811119118117––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:28 and never touched: 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeVitalii Mukhin to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Sergey Osipov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 76 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Vitalii Mukhin at 61.7%
76 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 1–1 Sergey Osipov Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:2861.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 2.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Mukhin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1377 vs Osipov 1190
Mukhin
Correct
both rated, 187 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 100% vs Osipov 80%
Mukhin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 70% vs Osipov 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin +6 · Osipov +1
Mukhin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Mukhin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osipov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 1.571 / Osipov 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Mukhin)-2.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270592
Mukhin1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 07)
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite72% won 105 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it95% 60 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it88% 81 of 92
Osipov2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog40% won 21 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back14% 3 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMukhin1wins
AwayOsipov1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricMukhinOsipovM − OBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match36.040.0−4.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinOsipovBasisWin rate · lifetime193 / 365 vs 131 / 27152.9%48.3%193 / 365 vs 131 / 271Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MukhinMukhin 1.57/Osipov 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Mukhin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mukhin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 30 · 09:35V. Mukhin205780S. Osipov331111113
WMar 19 · 14:40V. Mukhin527111112113S. Osipov4711871472
V. Mukhin10
WOct 10 · 06:00V. Mukhin1.3061114113V. Varchenko3.401121251WOct 7 · 11:05V. Mukhin2.251113113V. Kondratenko1.5741140WOct 7 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.1411114113V. Stukalov5.00771151WOct 7 · 08:05V. Mukhin3.001111133O. Mytsyk1.3657110WOct 7 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.5311115113S. Semenets2.38681171WOct 6 · 16:40V. Mukhin1.171111113V. Stukalov4.503840WOct 6 · 15:10V. Mukhin1.44811511113P. Ostrovskyi2.6311411692LOct 6 · 13:40V. Mukhin1.57111171192S. Hovorunets2.25513113113LOct 6 · 12:10V. Mukhin1.50164121182S. Semenets2.501811105113LOct 6 · 10:40V. Mukhin2.7596111172S. Skhabitskiy1.40111177113
S. Osipov10
WOct 10 · 06:30V. Kondratenko1.57411511102S. Osipov2.25117117123WOct 9 · 11:30S. Osipov1.281171112113D. Kunchurov3.5051161492LOct 9 · 09:30O. Ponomarenko2.201112113S. Osipov1.6171050WOct 9 · 07:30P. Ostrovskyi2.20107111152S. Osipov1.61121177113WOct 9 · 06:30S. Osipov1.171271113133O. Efimov4.501411711112WOct 9 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko7.00781151S. Osipov1.0811117113WOct 3 · 12:05S. Osipov1.251111113V. Mykhalchenko3.758450LOct 3 · 10:05O. Stopin1.731211411113S. Osipov2.0014411442WOct 3 · 08:05V. Varchenko1.448770S. Osipov2.631111113LOct 3 · 07:05S. Osipov1.73111271172P. Ostrovskyi2.00914116113
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