TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yaroslav Makovka vs Andrii Droshchynskyi 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113511911––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:28 and never touched: 83.8% is still 83.8%
Graded at full timeAndrii Droshchynskyi to win
83.8%
83.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Makovka above · Andrii Droshchynskyi below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 60 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Andrii Droshchynskyi at 83.8%
60 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Makovka 5–12 Andrii Droshchynskyi Yaroslav Makovka has won 5 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2883.8%Our read85.8%to break even at 1.166
short by 2.0pp85.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.166 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Droshchynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-12 in 17
Droshchynskyi
Correct
gap of 7 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Makovka 1522 vs Droshchynskyi 1706
Droshchynskyi
Correct
both rated, 184 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Makovka 40% vs Droshchynskyi 60%
Droshchynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Makovka 40% vs Droshchynskyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Makovka -1 · Droshchynskyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% · Strong (leans Droshchynskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Droshchynskyi form (60%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMakovka 4.50 / Droshchynskyi 1.166
Signal prob.16% / 84%
Edge (Droshchynskyi)-2.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270382
Makovka4.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 13 days ago (Sep 27) · back after a break
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 48 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 60
Droshchynskyi1.17
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 08)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 88 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it90% 64 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it80% 74 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMakovka1wins
AwayDroshchynskyi9wins
Droshchynskyi leads 9–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMakovkan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDroshchynskyi100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Makovka2Droshchynskyi8n = 10Droshchynskyi took 8 of 10
S2Makovka1Droshchynskyi9n = 10Droshchynskyi took 9 of 10
S3Makovka2Droshchynskyi8n = 10Droshchynskyi took 8 of 10
S4Makovka1Droshchynskyi3n = 4Droshchynskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricMakovkaDroshchynskyiM − DBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match24.335.9−11.6per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMakovkaDroshchynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 384 vs 146 / 25040.1%58.4%154 / 384 vs 146 / 250Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DroshchynskyiMakovka 4.50/Droshchynskyi 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83.8%
Droshchynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Droshchynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 11:00Y. Makovka29511761A. Droshchynskyi4211911113
LSep 26 · 13:40Y. Makovka2174100A. Droshchynskyi341111123
LSep 20 · 06:00Y. Makovka32591171A. Droshchynskyi4011117113
LAug 29 · 11:10Y. Makovka153840A. Droshchynskyi331111113
LAug 2 · 08:05Y. Makovka2113260A. Droshchynskyi371511113
LJul 25 · 15:10Y. Makovka153750A. Droshchynskyi331111113
LJul 24 · 14:00Y. Makovka167540A. Droshchynskyi331111113
LJul 11 · 14:40Y. Makovka269890A. Droshchynskyi331111113
LJul 5 · 11:30Y. Makovka29119091A. Droshchynskyi3851111113
WJun 23 · 01:40Y. Makovka3911611113A. Droshchynskyi36911971
Y. Makovka10
LSep 27 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.1711911113Y. Makovka4.50511761WSep 27 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.5795111142Y. Makovka2.25111145113LSep 27 · 08:30Y. Bondarenko1.331111113Y. Makovka3.258770LSep 27 · 06:30O. Zhyrnov1.441111113Y. Makovka2.632760WSep 27 · 04:30O. Blashkun1.6711114972Y. Makovka2.10991111113LSep 26 · 17:40Y. Makovka2.75117111172Y. Holoborodko1.40131199113WSep 26 · 15:40V. Ishchuk1.535690Y. Makovka2.381111113LSep 26 · 13:40A. Droshchynskyi1.201111123Y. Makovka4.3374100LSep 26 · 12:40Y. Makovka2.00115791O. Blashkun1.7391111113WSep 26 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk1.44791161Y. Makovka2.6311117113
A. Droshchynskyi10
LOct 10 · 12:40A. Droshchynskyi1.3612261152M. Tiutiunnyk3.00101111663LOct 8 · 17:10A. Droshchynskyi1.61811831A. Zozulia2.2011811113LOct 8 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.831111113A. Droshchynskyi1.835480WOct 8 · 14:10A. Droshchynskyi1.331111113Y. Holoborodko3.254650WOct 8 · 13:10V. Merzlikin3.75911491A. Droshchynskyi1.2511311113WOct 4 · 11:30O. Varlamov3.759790A. Droshchynskyi1.251111113LOct 4 · 10:00A. Droshchynskyi1.3086111192Y. Holoborodko3.40111144113WOct 4 · 08:00O. Kuzyshyn1.739101181A. Droshchynskyi2.0011124113WSep 27 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.1711911113Y. Makovka4.50511761WSep 26 · 13:40A. Droshchynskyi1.201111123Y. Makovka4.3374100
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