TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Stanislav Kafka vs David Hons 2-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 43 - B3 · Prague
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
114117411911811
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:25 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeStanislav Kafka to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingStanislav Kafka above · David Hons below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 7-10
Point 85 set 5, 7-10 · our read held Stanislav Kafka at 55.8%
85 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Stanislav Kafka 7–8 David Hons Stanislav Kafka has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:2555.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kafka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kafka 1567 vs Hons 1500
Kafka
Wrong
both rated, 67 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kafka 40% vs Hons 60%
Hons
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kafka 40% vs Hons 60%
Hons
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kafka -1 · Hons +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Kafka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hons form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKafka 1.666 / Hons 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Kafka)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13268210
Kafka1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 7 of 14
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it67% 4 of 6
Hons2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog39% won 60 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back12% 9 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKafka4wins
AwayHons6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHons leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKafka75%3 of 4
AwayHons83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kafka4Hons6n = 10Hons took 6 of 10
S2Kafka4Hons6n = 10Hons took 6 of 10
S3Kafka5Hons5n = 10split evenly
S4Kafka4Hons2n = 6Kafka took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKafkaHonsK − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.137.6−2.5per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKafkaHonsBasisWin rate · lifetime69 / 115 vs 279 / 55660%50.2%69 / 115 vs 279 / 556Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KafkaKafka 1.67/Hons 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Kafka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 19:05S. Kafka331111113D. Hons236980
LSep 27 · 19:05S. Kafka196670D. Hons331111113
LSep 11 · 18:05S. Kafka2257100D. Hons341111123
WApr 10 · 19:05S. Kafka4011144113D. Hons409121181
LApr 7 · 17:35S. Kafka4991114872D. Hons541191211113
LApr 7 · 15:05S. Kafka4778111472D. Hons531111812113
LMar 19 · 18:40S. Kafka198380D. Hons331111113
WMar 19 · 16:35S. Kafka4111811113D. Hons29911541
WMar 11 · 21:35S. Kafka4791111163D. Hons381185141
LJan 13 · 17:35S. Kafka34116981D. Hons3961111113
S. Kafka10
LOct 9 · 15:05J. Lovl1.5371111113S. Kafka2.38115971WOct 9 · 14:35T. Motacek2.251110661S. Kafka1.5791211113LOct 5 · 21:35J. Martin1.91911118113S. Kafka1.8011891182LOct 5 · 20:05S. Kafka1.5761111492M. Flesar2.25119711113WOct 5 · 19:05S. Kafka1.831111113D. Hons1.836980WOct 5 · 18:05S. Kafka1.80711811113J. Martin1.9111911352LSep 29 · 17:05T. Beran1.531211511113S. Kafka2.3814411832WSep 29 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.7378110S. Kafka2.001111133LSep 29 · 15:35S. Kafka2.50711781T. Trnka1.5011911113LSep 29 · 14:05T. Beran1.671113113S. Kafka2.1041160
D. Hons10
WOct 9 · 15:35D. Hons1.911111113T. Motacek1.806870WOct 9 · 14:05J. Lovl1.5751171172D. Hons2.25115116113LOct 8 · 21:05M. Flesar—1111113D. Hons—6770WOct 8 · 20:05M. Flesar2.001111117112D. Hons1.73135811133LOct 8 · 19:35J. Martin1.9161111113D. Hons1.80115881LOct 8 · 18:35D. Hons1.4429110M. Chmelicek2.631111133WOct 7 · 21:33L. Vosyka1.91108100D. Hons1.801211123LOct 7 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.9113111111113D. Hons1.8015413782WOct 7 · 19:35M. Chmelicek2.389128101D. Hons1.53111011123LOct 5 · 19:05S. Kafka1.831111113D. Hons1.836980
Upcoming Matches
S. Kafka
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D. Hons
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