TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Strutinskiy vs Andrii Derevianko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611911311––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:02 and never touched: 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Strutinskiy to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Strutinskiy above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 51 set 3, 3-11 · our read held Oleksandr Strutinskiy at 57.4%
51 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Strutinskiy 74–57 Andrii Derevianko Andrii Derevianko has won 57 of their 131 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:0257.4%Our read59.5%to break even at 1.68
short by 2.1pp59.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.68 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.68 (55%)
Strutinskiy
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
74-57 in 131
Strutinskiy
Wrong
gap of 17 in 131, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strutinskiy 1748 vs Derevianko 1697
Strutinskiy
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strutinskiy 80% vs Derevianko 60%
Strutinskiy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strutinskiy 80% vs Derevianko 60%
Strutinskiy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strutinskiy +4 · Derevianko +1
Strutinskiy
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Strutinskiy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrutinskiy 1.68 / Derevianko 2.05
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Strutinskiy)-2.1pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266355
Strutinskiy1.68
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 147 of 240
Up 2–0, closes it87% 71 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it71% 105 of 147
Derevianko2.05
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 139 of 332
Down 0–1, comes back26% 47 of 183
Down 0–2, comes back12% 11 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrutinskiy8wins
AwayDerevianko2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderStrutinskiy leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrutinskiy83.3%5 of 6
AwayDerevianko25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strutinskiy6Derevianko4n = 10Strutinskiy took 6 of 10
S2Strutinskiy7Derevianko3n = 10Strutinskiy took 7 of 10
S3Strutinskiy8Derevianko2n = 10Strutinskiy took 8 of 10
S4Strutinskiy3Derevianko2n = 5Strutinskiy took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrutinskiyDereviankoS − DBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.730.7+6.0per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrutinskiyDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime430 / 824 vs 480 / 100352.2%47.9%430 / 824 vs 480 / 1003Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StrutinskiyStrutinskiy 1.68/Derevianko 2.05
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.4%
Strutinskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 12:20O. Strutinskiy4111811113A. Derevianko33811951
WOct 5 · 17:40O. Strutinskiy49811127113A. Derevianko44117101152
WOct 3 · 12:20O. Strutinskiy331111113A. Derevianko193790
LOct 2 · 07:50O. Strutinskiy218760A. Derevianko331111113
LOct 1 · 15:30O. Strutinskiy4011810111A. Derevianko4591112133
WSep 29 · 12:20O. Strutinskiy341111123A. Derevianko2899100
WSep 28 · 17:40O. Strutinskiy4151311123A. Derevianko4011118101
WSep 25 · 11:20O. Strutinskiy331111113A. Derevianko178630
WSep 24 · 16:30O. Strutinskiy331111113A. Derevianko236980
WSep 22 · 08:20O. Strutinskiy4291111113A. Derevianko25112661
O. Strutinskiy10
WOct 9 · 10:40O. Strutinskiy1.5761113113A. Nazarov2.251151171WOct 6 · 12:20A. Derevianko2.10811951O. Strutinskiy1.6711811113WOct 6 · 11:20E. Hrytsenko2.50114531O. Strutinskiy1.50111211113WOct 6 · 09:50I. Nitchenko1.9110113111O. Strutinskiy1.8012911133LOct 6 · 07:50O. Zhyrnov3.259111110113O. Strutinskiy1.3311841292LOct 6 · 05:50M. Mrykh2.0071111113O. Strutinskiy1.73119581WOct 5 · 17:40A. Derevianko2.10117101152O. Strutinskiy1.67811127113WOct 5 · 16:10O. Strutinskiy1.671411113V. Maksuta2.1012260WOct 5 · 14:10Y. Riadynskyi1.6769110O. Strutinskiy2.101111133WOct 5 · 12:10E. Hrytsenko2.251476101O. Strutinskiy1.57121111123
A. Derevianko10
WOct 9 · 11:10A. Derevianko2.38511412133I. Nitchenko1.531161110112LOct 6 · 12:20A. Derevianko2.10811951O. Strutinskiy1.6711811113WOct 6 · 10:20M. Mrykh2.101348111A. Derevianko1.67111111133WOct 6 · 09:20A. Derevianko1.5711116113E. Hrytsenko2.25261161LOct 6 · 08:20I. Nitchenko1.5381112113A. Derevianko2.381171091WOct 6 · 06:50A. Derevianko1.36731111123O. Zhyrnov3.00111147102LOct 5 · 17:40A. Derevianko2.10117101152O. Strutinskiy1.67811127113WOct 5 · 15:40O. Zhyrnov3.0011940A. Derevianko1.361311113LOct 5 · 13:40E. Hrytsenko2.501151111113A. Derevianko1.5071191382WOct 5 · 12:40A. Derevianko1.611111113V. Maksuta2.209550
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