TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Ovsiienko vs Eduard Populovskyi 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711711511––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:13 and never touched: 66.6% is still 66.6%
Graded at full timeEduard Populovskyi to win
66.6%
66.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Ovsiienko above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 52 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Eduard Populovskyi at 66.6%
52 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Ovsiienko 0–3 Eduard Populovskyi Oleksandr Ovsiienko has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:1366.6%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 6.8pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Populovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Populovskyi
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ovsiienko 1351 vs Populovskyi 1362
Populovskyi
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovsiienko 40% vs Populovskyi 0%
Ovsiienko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovsiienko 40% vs Populovskyi 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovsiienko -2 · Populovskyi -7
Populovskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Populovskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (0%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvsiienko 3.00 / Populovskyi 1.363
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Populovskyi)-6.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266070
Ovsiienko3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 80 of 214
Down 0–1, comes back16% 19 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 76
Populovskyi1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite54% won 91 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it98% 50 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it84% 67 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeOvsiienko0wins
AwayPopulovskyi3wins
Populovskyi leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOvsiienkon = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayPopulovskyi100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ovsiienko0Populovskyi3n = 3Populovskyi took 3 of 3
S2Ovsiienko0Populovskyi3n = 3Populovskyi took 3 of 3
S3Ovsiienko0Populovskyi3n = 3Populovskyi took 3 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away3100%
These 3 meetings
MetricOvsiienkoPopulovskyiO − PBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match17.733.0−15.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvsiienkoPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime459 / 894 vs 338 / 70751.3%47.8%459 / 894 vs 338 / 707Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PopulovskyiOvsiienko 3.00/Populovskyi 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.6%
Populovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 9 · 07:20O. Ovsiienko197750E. Populovskyi331111113
LAug 24 · 05:50O. Ovsiienko195680E. Populovskyi331111113
LAug 6 · 07:50O. Ovsiienko157260E. Populovskyi331111113
O. Ovsiienko10
WOct 9 · 10:20O. Ovsiienko2.7511911113V. Smyk1.40511961LOct 9 · 08:50O. Ovsiienko1.80136111172O. Mytsyk1.91151135113LOct 9 · 05:50O. Ovsiienko2.3811117752M. Stetsenko1.53971111113LOct 5 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy2.00771211113O. Ovsiienko1.73111110762WOct 5 · 10:50O. Ovsiienko1.801111113V. Melnykov1.918870LOct 5 · 09:50O. Ovsiienko2.506750M. Stetsenko1.501111113WOct 5 · 08:20O. Ovsiienko3.001111153O. Lipeiko1.3699130WOct 5 · 06:20O. Ovsiienko1.83136114123O. Mytsyk1.831111611102LOct 4 · 19:00S. Skhabitskiy2.25115511113O. Ovsiienko1.5771111742LOct 4 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko2.505710M. Stetsenko1.501111113
E. Populovskyi10
WOct 9 · 11:20E. Populovskyi1.3691111113M. Stetsenko3.00113741WOct 9 · 09:20V. Smyk1.917111081E. Populovskyi1.8011812113LOct 9 · 06:20S. Skhabitskiy2.501111113E. Populovskyi1.504640LOct 5 · 11:00O. Leonenko1.5712118123E. Populovskyi2.2510911101LOct 5 · 10:00S. Solomko1.171111113E. Populovskyi4.504270LOct 5 · 08:30V. Kolesnykov1.441111113E. Populovskyi2.637760LOct 5 · 06:30A. Kovalenko1.9111118163E. Populovskyi1.807611141LOct 5 · 04:30O. Volynets1.5711411123E. Populovskyi2.254117101LOct 4 · 11:50E. Populovskyi4.333870S. Solomko1.201111113WOct 4 · 10:20E. Populovskyi2.7513136143A. Martyniuk1.40111111121
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