TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Radovan Pisa vs Josef Dolezal 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911711811––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:10 and never touched: 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeRadovan Pisa to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadovan Pisa above · Josef Dolezal below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 57 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Radovan Pisa at 64.8%
57 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Pisa 6–2 Josef Dolezal Josef Dolezal has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:1064.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 0.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Pisa
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Pisa
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pisa 1731 vs Dolezal 1611
Pisa
Wrong
both rated, 120 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pisa 80% vs Dolezal 20%
Pisa
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pisa 70% vs Dolezal 40%
Pisa
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pisa +2 · Dolezal -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Pisa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dolezal form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPisa 1.533 / Dolezal 2.375
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Pisa)-0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13265835
Pisa1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 82 of 157
Up 2–0, closes it88% 38 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it66% 59 of 90
Dolezal2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 24 days ago (Sep 15) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 34 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomePisa6wins
AwayDolezal2wins
Pisa leads 6–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePisa100%4 of 4
AwayDolezal50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pisa4Dolezal4n = 8split evenly
S2Pisa8Dolezal0n = 8Pisa took 8 of 8
S3Pisa2Dolezal6n = 8Dolezal took 6 of 8
S4Pisa6Dolezal2n = 8Pisa took 6 of 8
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home675%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricPisaDolezalP − DBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match40.036.9+3.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPisaDolezalBasisWin rate · lifetime385 / 792 vs 60 / 13448.6%44.8%385 / 792 vs 60 / 134Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PisaPisa 1.53/Dolezal 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.8%
Pisa · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Dolezal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 2 · 19:45R. Pisa4111118113J. Dolezal30381181
WAug 18 · 20:43R. Pisa4111118113J. Dolezal37991181
LAug 18 · 19:45R. Pisa32711681J. Dolezal3711411113
WAug 6 · 10:15R. Pisa4716137113J. Dolezal4514111191
WJun 18 · 13:04R. Pisa4461611113J. Dolezal421114891
WJun 18 · 11:00R. Pisa3961111113J. Dolezal30119551
WApr 27 · 20:23R. Pisa3912115113J. Dolezal331041181
LApr 27 · 19:15R. Pisa3710111061J. Dolezal4112612113
R. Pisa10
WOct 9 · 11:15R. Pisa2.1011115113L. Veigl1.67691181WOct 9 · 09:15R. Pisa1.831118113T. Liska1.8391680WOct 8 · 12:44R. Pisa2.001111113L. Adam1.735980LOct 8 · 11:45L. Adam1.6731113123R. Pisa2.1011311101WOct 8 · 10:45A. Radkovsky2.2511691192R. Pisa1.57511116113WOct 8 · 09:15M. Stibor1.83731171R. Pisa1.8311117113WOct 6 · 08:19R. Pisa2.3871311123A. Snr1.5311115101LOct 6 · 07:15A. Snr1.5711912113R. Pisa2.256111071WOct 6 · 06:45R. Pisa1.8311119113T. Liska1.83331131WOct 6 · 05:45R. Pisa1.731111113M. Makara2.005350
J. Dolezal10
LOct 9 · 11:45J. Dolezal1.919146111T. Liska1.80111211133LOct 9 · 09:45L. Veigl1.67811118123J. Dolezal2.10114411102LSep 15 · 20:14J. Krames Sr1.611211113J. Dolezal2.2010770LSep 15 · 19:15J. Dolezal2.2011371192V. Grubr1.61711118113WSep 15 · 18:15J. Dolezal2.0041111113S. Rejent1.73117881LSep 15 · 17:15J. Dolezal2.50821441J. Krames Sr1.50111112113LSep 15 · 12:13J. Dolezal1.836540M. Vyskocil1.831111113WSep 15 · 11:15M. Vyskocil1.831181011122J. Dolezal1.83711127143LSep 15 · 10:45J. Dolezal2.10771181M. Kocvara1.6711118113WSep 15 · 09:45J. Dolezal2.001111113T. Liska1.737890
Upcoming Matches
R. Pisa
Nothing scheduled
J. Dolezal
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