TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Jezek vs Ales Barton 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711116116711311
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:27 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAles Barton to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Jezek above · Ales Barton below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 84 set 5, 3-11 · our read held Ales Barton at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Michal Jezek 5–6 Ales Barton Michal Jezek has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Jezek beat Barton 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2754.0%Our read57.8%to break even at 1.73
short by 3.8pp57.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.73 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Barton
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jezek 1804 vs Barton 1794
Jezek
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jezek 60% vs Barton 80%
Barton
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jezek 70% vs Barton 50%
Jezek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jezek +3 · Barton +1
Jezek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Barton) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Barton form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJezek 2.00 / Barton 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Barton)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13265438
Jezek2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog52% won 44 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back37% 17 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 28
Barton1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 77 of 138
Up 2–0, closes it87% 34 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it71% 53 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJezek5wins
AwayBarton5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJezek60%3 of 5
AwayBarton60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jezek5Barton5n = 10split evenly
S2Jezek2Barton8n = 10Barton took 8 of 10
S3Jezek4Barton6n = 10Barton took 6 of 10
S4Jezek3Barton3n = 6split evenly
S5Jezek3Barton0n = 3Jezek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricJezekBartonJ − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.237.2−3.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJezekBartonBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 346 vs 224 / 42950.9%52.2%176 / 346 vs 224 / 429Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BartonJezek 2.00/Barton 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Barton · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Barton won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 15:30M. Jezek501071111113A. Barton4712118972
LAug 18 · 16:30M. Jezek215880A. Barton331111113
WAug 11 · 17:28M. Jezek46111149113A. Barton4799111172
LAug 11 · 16:00M. Jezek188640A. Barton331111113
WJun 30 · 16:00M. Jezek331111113A. Barton196760
LMay 12 · 17:30M. Jezek341167101A. Barton4281111123
WMay 12 · 14:00M. Jezek48691111113A. Barton4411119582
WApr 14 · 16:00M. Jezek4211911113A. Barton32811491
LSep 30 · 15:00M. Jezek2061040A. Barton341112113
LSep 9 · 17:00M. Jezek30114781A. Barton4181111113
M. Jezek10
WOct 8 · 16:00M. Jezek1.6111511113V. Nohejl2.20411861WOct 8 · 15:30A. Barton1.6712118972M. Jezek2.101071111113WOct 8 · 14:00M. Jezek1.731111113R. Urbaniec2.009980LOct 7 · 16:59F. Wolf1.801115113M. Jezek1.9191360LOct 7 · 16:30R. Urbaniec2.20111311113M. Jezek1.611311771LOct 7 · 15:30M. Jezek2.508550J. Nesnera1.501111113WOct 7 · 14:30F. Wolf1.615770M. Jezek2.201111113WSep 30 · 17:30M. Huk2.10112120M. Jezek1.651114143WSep 30 · 16:00M. Jezek1.83119119113M. Huk1.8381161172WSep 30 · 15:30P. Gireth1.3611811782M. Jezek3.00911911113
A. Barton10
WOct 8 · 16:30R. Urbaniec2.6395121382A. Barton1.4411111011113LOct 8 · 15:30A. Barton1.6712118972M. Jezek2.101071111113WOct 8 · 14:30V. Nohejl2.75971281A. Barton1.40111110113WOct 2 · 12:58A. Barton1.8011911113J. Simecek1.91411991WOct 2 · 12:30A. Barton1.83115911113J. Simecek1.8331111952LOct 2 · 11:00A. Barton3.503511111E. Mares1.2811119133WOct 2 · 10:00J. Ruzicka2.2541212592A. Barton1.5711101011113LSep 27 · 17:00A. Barton1.851191216112J. Mecl Jr1.854111414133LSep 27 · 16:00A. Barton1.5741111842F. Pusch2.2511851193LSep 27 · 15:30R. Urbaniec2.75111111123A. Barton1.401368101
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