TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Jezek vs Vaclav Nohejl 2005 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114511118116––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:19 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Jezek to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Michal Jezek @ 1.61 · Won
How it is goingMichal Jezek above · Vaclav Nohejl 2005 below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 67 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Michal Jezek at 60.5%
67 points played in total.
H2H Michal Jezek 3–1 Vaclav Nohejl 2005 Vaclav Nohejl 2005 has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 14:1960.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Jezek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Jezek
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jezek 1795 vs Nohejl 1723
Jezek
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jezek 40% vs Nohejl 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jezek 60% vs Nohejl 40%
Jezek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jezek +2 · Nohejl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Jezek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jezek form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJezek 1.615 / Nohejl 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Jezek)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13259533
Jezek1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 20 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it68% 13 of 19
Nohejl2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 18 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJezek3wins
AwayNohejl1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderJezek leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jezek2Nohejl2n = 4split evenly
S2Jezek4Nohejl0n = 4Jezek took 4 of 4
S3Jezek2Nohejl2n = 4split evenly
S4Jezek2Nohejl1n = 3Jezek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricJezekNohejlJ − NBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match44.236.8+7.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJezekNohejlBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 345 vs 173 / 32250.7%53.7%175 / 345 vs 173 / 322Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JezekJezek 1.61/Nohejl 2.20
Hit
What we said
60.5%
Jezek · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Michal Jezek @ 1.61 · Won
What happened
3–1
Jezek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 16 · 14:30M. Jezek4111118113V. Nohejl24621151
WAug 26 · 17:00M. Jezek331111113V. Nohejl195770
WAug 26 · 16:30M. Jezek6011111215113V. Nohejl54139141352
LAug 25 · 14:30M. Jezek4351111792V. Nohejl50119811113
M. Jezek10
WOct 8 · 15:30A. Barton1.6712118972M. Jezek2.101071111113WOct 8 · 14:00M. Jezek1.731111113R. Urbaniec2.009980LOct 7 · 16:59F. Wolf1.801115113M. Jezek1.9191360LOct 7 · 16:30R. Urbaniec2.20111311113M. Jezek1.611311771LOct 7 · 15:30M. Jezek2.508550J. Nesnera1.501111113WOct 7 · 14:30F. Wolf1.615770M. Jezek2.201111113WSep 30 · 17:30M. Huk2.10112120M. Jezek1.651114143WSep 30 · 16:00M. Jezek1.83119119113M. Huk1.8381161172WSep 30 · 15:30P. Gireth1.3611811782M. Jezek3.00911911113LSep 30 · 14:00M. Jezek1.4431370R. Urbaniec2.631115113
V. Nohejl10
WOct 8 · 15:00R. Urbaniec1.91132641V. Nohejl1.80111111113LOct 8 · 14:30V. Nohejl2.75971281A. Barton1.40111110113WSep 28 · 21:00O. Cmerda1.80411681V. Nohejl1.9111411113LSep 28 · 20:00R. Urbaniec2.25111176113V. Nohejl1.5737111172LSep 28 · 19:00O. Cmerda1.7311125113V. Nohejl2.009101161LSep 28 · 18:30V. Nohejl1.571114111162M. Skakal2.25216513113WSep 28 · 16:58F. Pusch1.91711291V. Nohejl1.8011611113WSep 28 · 16:30V. Nohejl1.911111611113F. Pusch1.8013911782LSep 28 · 15:00V. Nohejl1.8311119742J. Ruzicka1.83871111113LSep 28 · 14:00O. Kolisnyk1.7318225113V. Nohejl2.0016201171
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