TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Krenek vs Vojtech Konvicka 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911112114611611
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:17 and never touched: 67.1% is still 67.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Krenek to win
67.1%
67.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Krenek above · Vojtech Konvicka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 82 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Tomas Krenek at 67.1%
82 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krenek 5–1 Vojtech Konvicka Vojtech Konvicka has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Krenek beat Konvicka 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:1767.1%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 2.2pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Krenek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Krenek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krenek 1663 vs Konvicka 1522
Krenek
Wrong
both rated, 141 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krenek 60% vs Konvicka 40%
Krenek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krenek 60% vs Konvicka 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krenek -1 · Konvicka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Krenek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrenek 1.444 / Konvicka 2.625
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Krenek)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13265375
Krenek1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 132 of 233
Up 2–0, closes it93% 52 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it73% 87 of 120
Konvicka2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 35 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back20% 8 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKrenek5wins
AwayKonvicka1wins
4 of 6 to a deciderKrenek leads 5–1, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrenek100%3 of 3
AwayKonvicka33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krenek3Konvicka3n = 6split evenly
S2Krenek5Konvicka1n = 6Krenek took 5 of 6
S3Krenek3Konvicka3n = 6split evenly
S4Krenek3Konvicka3n = 6split evenly
S5Krenek3Konvicka1n = 4Krenek took 3 of 4
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKrenekKonvickaKrenek − KonvickaBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match46.242.2+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrenekKonvickaBasisWin rate · lifetime519 / 1008 vs 146 / 28051.5%52.1%519 / 1008 vs 146 / 280Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrenekKrenek 1.44/Konvicka 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.1%
Krenek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Konvicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WOct 8 · 15:15T. Krenek4413119113V. Konvicka381191171
WAug 21 · 16:15T. Krenek4071111113V. Konvicka34118961
WJul 8 · 16:40T. Krenek43641111113V. Konvicka4711118982
LJul 8 · 15:10T. Krenek50713111092V. Konvicka521111712113
WJul 1 · 16:50T. Krenek521111118113V. Konvicka4392131182
WJul 1 · 15:15T. Krenek481111510113V. Konvicka3993111242
T. Krenek10
LOct 8 · 15:45A. Kanak2.00111114113T. Krenek1.73991641WOct 8 · 15:15V. Konvicka2.631191171T. Krenek1.4413119113WOct 8 · 14:00T. Krenek1.73811119113R. Sedlacek2.0011661132LOct 8 · 13:15J. Krupnik1.83111156143T. Krenek1.83891111122WOct 8 · 12:15M. Moravec2.3846110T. Krenek1.531111133LOct 8 · 11:15T. Krenek1.8341360J. Krupnik1.831115113WOct 8 · 09:45R. Sedlacek2.005670T. Krenek1.731111113WOct 6 · 13:10T. Krenek1.831111715113J. Skvrna1.8379111782LOct 6 · 12:10T. Krenek1.736760B. Mrowetz2.001111113WOct 6 · 10:40J. Krupnik1.7381471172T. Krenek2.001112118113
V. Konvicka10
WOct 8 · 16:15R. Sedlacek1.671110291V. Konvicka2.1051211113LOct 8 · 15:15V. Konvicka2.631191171T. Krenek1.4413119113WOct 8 · 13:45A. Kanak1.5391112782V. Konvicka2.381181011113LOct 1 · 17:00V. Konvicka2.0011611151M. Moravec1.7391113173LOct 1 · 16:15L. Dzida1.839111110113V. Konvicka1.8311781272WOct 1 · 15:15V. Konvicka2.10111112113M. Moravec1.671391091LOct 1 · 13:45A. Kanak1.53101113113V. Konvicka2.381271191WSep 25 · 16:44V. Konvicka1.6112116113J. Przybyla2.201051171LSep 25 · 15:45L. Kantor1.7311911113V. Konvicka2.00811591WSep 25 · 15:15J. Przybyla2.005960V. Konvicka1.731111113
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