TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Krenek vs Radek Sedlacek 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811116116911113
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:47 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Krenek to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Krenek above · Radek Sedlacek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 87 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Tomas Krenek at 56.5%
87 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krenek 14–13 Radek Sedlacek Radek Sedlacek has won 13 of their 27 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Krenek beat Sedlacek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:4756.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Krenek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-13 in 27
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krenek 1666 vs Sedlacek 1540
Krenek
Correct
both rated, 125 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krenek 60% vs Sedlacek 20%
Krenek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krenek 70% vs Sedlacek 40%
Krenek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krenek -1 · Sedlacek -4
Sedlacek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Krenek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sedlacek form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrenek 1.727 / Sedlacek 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Krenek)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13263864
Krenek1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 132 of 233
Up 2–0, closes it93% 52 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it73% 87 of 120
Sedlacek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 40 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back32% 14 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrenek4wins
AwaySedlacek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSedlacek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrenek50%3 of 6
AwaySedlacek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krenek6Sedlacek4n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S2Krenek5Sedlacek5n = 10split evenly
S3Krenek4Sedlacek6n = 10Sedlacek took 6 of 10
S4Krenek4Sedlacek5n = 9Sedlacek took 5 of 9
S5Krenek1Sedlacek2n = 3Sedlacek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrenekSedlacekK − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.240.7+0.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrenekSedlacekBasisWin rate · lifetime517 / 1005 vs 169 / 36151.4%46.8%517 / 1005 vs 169 / 361Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrenekKrenek 1.73/Sedlacek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Krenek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Krenek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 09:45T. Krenek331111113R. Sedlacek185670
LOct 6 · 07:10T. Krenek36881191R. Sedlacek3811115113
LSep 28 · 07:40T. Krenek47811121152R. Sedlacek49116147113
LSep 24 · 10:40T. Krenek30651181R. Sedlacek4211119113
WSep 24 · 06:40T. Krenek481151011113R. Sedlacek4891112792
LSep 2 · 11:45T. Krenek3711115101R. Sedlacek4591311123
LAug 18 · 17:08T. Krenek391410961R. Sedlacek46121211113
LAug 18 · 14:10T. Krenek4811129972R. Sedlacek518101111113
WAug 10 · 12:10T. Krenek50111113153R. Sedlacek387315131
WJul 15 · 07:10T. Krenek44111111113R. Sedlacek32133791
T. Krenek10
WOct 8 · 15:15V. Konvicka2.631191171T. Krenek1.4413119113LOct 8 · 13:15J. Krupnik1.83111156143T. Krenek1.83891111122WOct 8 · 12:15M. Moravec2.3846110T. Krenek1.531111133LOct 8 · 11:15T. Krenek1.8341360J. Krupnik1.831115113WOct 8 · 09:45R. Sedlacek2.005670T. Krenek1.731111113WOct 6 · 13:10T. Krenek1.831111715113J. Skvrna1.8379111782LOct 6 · 12:10T. Krenek1.736760B. Mrowetz2.001111113WOct 6 · 10:40J. Krupnik1.7381471172T. Krenek2.001112118113WOct 6 · 10:10J. Skvrna1.73911111182T. Krenek2.00114138113WOct 6 · 09:08T. Krenek1.671112911113D. Velky Jr2.10710111362
R. Sedlacek10
WOct 8 · 14:45A. Kanak1.83911116112R. Sedlacek1.83118911133LOct 8 · 12:45M. Moravec1.801111123R. Sedlacek1.9169100LOct 8 · 11:45R. Sedlacek1.91111179102J. Krupnik1.80771111123LOct 8 · 10:45R. Sedlacek2.001151381M. Moravec1.7381115113LOct 8 · 09:45R. Sedlacek2.005670T. Krenek1.731111113WOct 6 · 13:14R. Sedlacek1.80117116113D. Pawlik1.9131191182WOct 6 · 11:45T. Kindl2.101113581R. Sedlacek1.6781511113WOct 6 · 11:15J. Przybyla2.63116315102R. Sedlacek1.449111113123LOct 6 · 10:15R. Sedlacek1.8011811272D. Pawlik1.918111110113WOct 6 · 08:38M. Moravec1.80137891R. Sedlacek1.91111111113
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