TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Gembala vs Radek Benes 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117117––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:43 and never touched: 56.3% is still 56.3%
Graded at full timeJan Gembala to win
56.3%
56.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Gembala above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 56 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Jan Gembala at 56.3%
56 points played in total.
H2H Jan Gembala 16–12 Radek Benes Radek Benes has won 12 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:4356.3%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 5.6pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Gembala
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-12 in 28
Gembala
Correct
gap of 4 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gembala 1699 vs Benes 1681
Gembala
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gembala 80% vs Benes 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gembala 70% vs Benes 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gembala +2 · Benes +3
Benes
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Gembala) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGembala 1.615 / Benes 2.20
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Gembala)-5.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13262005
Gembala1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 81 of 145
Up 2–0, closes it96% 50 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it81% 66 of 82
Benes2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 61 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back28% 23 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGembala7wins
AwayBenes3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGembala leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGembala71.4%5 of 7
AwayBenes33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gembala7Benes3n = 10Gembala took 7 of 10
S2Gembala5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S3Gembala7Benes3n = 10Gembala took 7 of 10
S4Gembala5Benes3n = 8Gembala took 5 of 8
S5Gembala2Benes2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGembalaBenesG − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.937.4+4.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGembalaBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 393 vs 537 / 102354.7%52.5%215 / 393 vs 537 / 1023Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GembalaGembala 1.61/Benes 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.3%
Gembala · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Gembala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 06:45J. Gembala331111113R. Benes239770
WAug 23 · 19:40J. Gembala501071111113R. Benes4812118982
WAug 5 · 06:40J. Gembala3811412113R. Benes282111051
WJun 24 · 06:40J. Gembala4211128113R. Benes339101131
LJun 17 · 09:15J. Gembala4371111772R. Benes51119911113
WJun 17 · 05:40J. Gembala4111811113R. Benes33611881
LJun 2 · 07:40J. Gembala50111271192R. Benes51614119113
LMay 24 · 11:10J. Gembala381269111R. Benes45101111133
WMay 18 · 09:10J. Gembala49811118113R. Benes3911671142
WMay 18 · 06:40J. Gembala351311113R. Benes2311660
J. Gembala10
LOct 8 · 07:45J. Gembala1.5781080J. Krupnik2.251112113WOct 8 · 05:45J. Gembala1.401111173D. Velky Jr2.7538150WOct 7 · 09:15J. Skvrna1.80113941J. Gembala1.9161111113LOct 7 · 07:40J. Skvrna1.6781111133J. Gembala2.101198111WOct 7 · 07:10D. Velky Jr2.634790J. Gembala1.441111113WOct 7 · 06:10J. Gembala1.6711911113L. Slavik2.10811671LSep 28 · 21:18J. Gembala1.91111158122L. Slavik1.80561111143WSep 28 · 19:45J. Gembala1.671111163J. Krupnik2.1097140LSep 28 · 18:45J. Gembala1.737114121L. Slavik2.0011911143WSep 28 · 17:45J. Gembala1.4011117113D. Velky Jr2.75491171
R. Benes10
WOct 8 · 06:15J. Krupnik1.83111110582R. Benes1.83991211113WOct 7 · 13:19R. Benes1.501111113L. Dzida2.507750WOct 7 · 11:45R. Benes1.25101111113T. Kindl3.75128791LOct 7 · 10:45R. Benes1.5711681182L. Kantor2.25811113113WOct 7 · 09:45R. Benes1.6113174123L. Dzida2.20111511101LOct 5 · 13:15R. Benes1.915980T. Krenek1.801111113WOct 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.80771171R. Benes1.9111118113WOct 5 · 11:15T. Krenek1.73114871R. Benes2.0061111113WOct 5 · 10:15R. Benes1.91111511113M. Moravec1.808131381WOct 5 · 09:25L. Slavik2.0011111061R. Benes1.7313612113
Upcoming Matches
J. Gembala
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R. Benes
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