TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jan Marhol vs Petr Maly 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111182111181012
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:18 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Maly to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Marhol above · Petr Maly below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 90 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Petr Maly at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Jan Marhol 6–2 Petr Maly Petr Maly has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:1854.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Maly
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Marhol
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marhol 1489 vs Maly 1489
Maly
Correct
both rated, 0 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marhol 60% vs Maly 40%
Marhol
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marhol 60% vs Maly 40%
Marhol
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marhol -1 · Maly -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Maly) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maly form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarhol 2.00 / Maly 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Maly)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261306
Marhol2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 07)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog51% won 19 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back33% 7 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back20% 1 of 5
Maly1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 06)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 56 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it66% 40 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMarhol6wins
AwayMaly2wins
3 of 8 to a deciderMarhol leads 6–2, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarhol80%4 of 5
AwayMaly33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marhol5Maly3n = 8Marhol took 5 of 8
S2Marhol7Maly1n = 8Marhol took 7 of 8
S3Marhol5Maly3n = 8Marhol took 5 of 8
S4Marhol4Maly3n = 7Marhol took 4 of 7
S5Marhol1Maly2n = 3Maly took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricMarholMalyMarhol − MalyBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match42.639.1+3.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarholMalyBasisWin rate · lifetime132 / 257 vs 217 / 41251.4%52.7%132 / 257 vs 217 / 412Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MalyMarhol 2.00/Maly 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Maly · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Maly won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LJun 7 · 16:29J. Marhol461211310102P. Maly531081112123
WJun 7 · 14:00J. Marhol4111118113P. Maly30581161
WApr 5 · 13:10J. Marhol43101111113P. Maly37129791
WApr 5 · 10:30J. Marhol4011711113P. Maly34911771
WApr 4 · 12:00J. Marhol4011114143P. Maly367611121
WFeb 22 · 13:00J. Marhol331111113P. Maly257990
WFeb 9 · 18:30J. Marhol52911129113P. Maly46116101182
LJan 10 · 16:15J. Marhol46411111282P. Maly52119714113
J. Marhol10
LOct 8 · 19:30J. Marhol1.7310111351J. Snr2.0012815113LOct 8 · 18:30J. Marhol1.40111211792M. Drabek2.759101311113LOct 7 · 12:34J. Marhol1.28512361M. Melisek3.50111011113WOct 7 · 11:30M. Melisek2.106680J. Marhol1.671111113LOct 7 · 11:00J. Marhol1.5331111872J. Puk2.38119711113WOct 7 · 10:00J. Marhol1.67641211113M. Vorel2.10111110482WSep 24 · 21:03M. Drabek2.504119101J. Marhol1.5011911123WSep 24 · 19:30M. Barton1.8391111682J. Marhol1.83119811113WSep 24 · 19:00J. Marhol2.2012119113M. Vana1.611081171LSep 24 · 18:00J. Marhol1.448111011102M. Drabek2.63116126123
P. Maly10
LOct 8 · 20:00M. Drabek2.63111212113P. Maly1.445141061LOct 8 · 19:00J. Snr2.2071111113P. Maly1.61115641LOct 6 · 20:59J. Gruber1.731111113P. Maly2.006690LOct 6 · 19:30P. Maly2.1056111392T. Bertho1.671111911113WOct 6 · 18:30P. Maly1.8011119113F. Kubos1.91861171WOct 6 · 17:30P. Maly2.75971111113J. Gruber1.4011114992LSep 17 · 20:33T. Bertho1.8011118113P. Maly1.91541151WSep 17 · 19:30M. Cizek2.2010911111P. Maly1.6112118133LSep 17 · 19:00P. Maly1.91911711112T. Bertho1.80119118133LSep 17 · 18:00P. Maly1.83115661Z. Kuksa1.8391111113
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