TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Sergii Sideltsev vs Ihor Dubinin 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111197111171412
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:50 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeIhor Dubinin to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSergii Sideltsev above · Ihor Dubinin below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 99 set 5, 14-12 · our read held Ihor Dubinin at 54.9%
99 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Sideltsev 8–21 Ihor Dubinin Sergii Sideltsev has won 8 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5054.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dubinin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-21 in 29
Dubinin
Wrong
gap of 13 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sideltsev 1489 vs Dubinin 1457
Sideltsev
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sideltsev 40% vs Dubinin 60%
Dubinin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sideltsev 50% vs Dubinin 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sideltsev +2 · Dubinin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Dubinin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSideltsev 2.00 / Dubinin 1.727
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Dubinin)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13260990
Sideltsev2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 36 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back20% 9 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Dubinin1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 52 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it83% 39 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSideltsev3wins
AwayDubinin7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDubinin leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSideltsev50%2 of 4
AwayDubinin83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sideltsev4Dubinin6n = 10Dubinin took 6 of 10
S2Sideltsev6Dubinin4n = 10Sideltsev took 6 of 10
S3Sideltsev4Dubinin6n = 10Dubinin took 6 of 10
S4Sideltsev2Dubinin4n = 6Dubinin took 4 of 6
S5Sideltsev1Dubinin3n = 4Dubinin took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSideltsevDubininS − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.038.4−0.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSideltsevDubininBasisWin rate · lifetime253 / 430 vs 216 / 44358.8%48.8%253 / 430 vs 216 / 443Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DubininSideltsev 2.00/Dubinin 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Dubinin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sideltsev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 17:05S. Sideltsev49111368112I. Dubinin537111111133
WOct 5 · 12:30S. Sideltsev341211113I. Dubinin2410680
LOct 1 · 17:39S. Sideltsev378101181I. Dubinin4011126113
WOct 1 · 14:00S. Sideltsev49811811113I. Dubinin4211811392
LSep 30 · 13:30S. Sideltsev3981110101I. Dubinin4411912123
LSep 28 · 16:30S. Sideltsev2679100I. Dubinin341111123
LSep 7 · 17:08S. Sideltsev2510960I. Dubinin341211113
LSep 7 · 12:00S. Sideltsev4591111682I. Dubinin42114511113
LAug 30 · 15:00S. Sideltsev41111031162I. Dubinin45812113113
WAug 24 · 16:00S. Sideltsev351111133I. Dubinin2687110
S. Sideltsev10
WOct 8 · 13:30S. Sideltsev2.751112113O. Torianyk1.4091060WOct 8 · 12:00S. Sideltsev1.73117117113P. Shulhachyk2.0091191172LOct 5 · 17:05S. Sideltsev2.25111368112I. Dubinin1.577111111133LOct 5 · 16:00S. Sideltsev1.6111941182P. Shulhachyk2.20311119113LOct 5 · 15:00V. Simchuk2.201111113S. Sideltsev1.619240WOct 5 · 14:00I. Sushko1.5327111122S. Sideltsev2.38111197113WOct 5 · 12:30I. Dubinin1.6710680S. Sideltsev2.101211113LOct 1 · 17:39S. Sideltsev2.008101181I. Dubinin1.7311126113LOct 1 · 16:00S. Sideltsev1.675880P. Kolesnik2.101111113WOct 1 · 15:00M. Pohorilyi1.501111891S. Sideltsev2.5013911113
I. Dubinin10
LOct 8 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi1.441111113I. Dubinin2.639940WOct 8 · 12:30O. Torianyk1.33711871I. Dubinin3.2511511113WOct 5 · 17:05S. Sideltsev2.25111368112I. Dubinin1.577111111133WOct 5 · 15:30I. Sushko1.50612411102I. Dubinin2.501110115123LOct 5 · 14:30I. Dubinin2.005980P. Shulhachyk1.731111113LOct 5 · 13:30V. Simchuk1.6181111113I. Dubinin2.20114581LOct 5 · 12:30I. Dubinin1.6710680S. Sideltsev2.101211113WOct 1 · 17:39S. Sideltsev2.008101181I. Dubinin1.7311126113WOct 1 · 16:30I. Dubinin2.63111189113M. Pohorilyi1.4497111192LOct 1 · 15:30I. Dubinin1.83911891P. Shulhachyk1.8311811113
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