TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Viacheslav Simchuk vs Sergii Sideltsev 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119112114––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:54 and never touched: 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeSergii Sideltsev to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Sergii Sideltsev @ 1.61 · Lost
How it is goingViacheslav Simchuk above · Sergii Sideltsev below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 48 set 3, 11-4 · our read held Sergii Sideltsev at 55.3%
48 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Simchuk 8–13 Sergii Sideltsev Viacheslav Simchuk has won 8 of their 21 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 13:5455.3%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 6.6pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sideltsev
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-13 in 21
Sideltsev
Wrong
gap of 5 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simchuk 1530 vs Sideltsev 1494
Simchuk
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simchuk 80% vs Sideltsev 60%
Simchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simchuk 80% vs Sideltsev 60%
Simchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Simchuk +2 · Sideltsev +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Sideltsev) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Simchuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimchuk 2.20 / Sideltsev 1.615
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Sideltsev)-6.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245575
Simchuk2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 17 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back14% 4 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Sideltsev1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite73% won 100 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it100% 69 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it89% 83 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSimchuk2wins
AwaySideltsev8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSideltsev leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimchuk33.3%1 of 3
AwaySideltsev85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simchuk3Sideltsev7n = 10Sideltsev took 7 of 10
S2Simchuk1Sideltsev9n = 10Sideltsev took 9 of 10
S3Simchuk6Sideltsev3n = 9Simchuk took 6 of 9
S4Simchuk1Sideltsev6n = 7Sideltsev took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSimchukSideltsevSimchuk − SideltsevBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.941.9−5.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimchukSideltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime290 / 466 vs 255 / 43462.2%58.8%290 / 466 vs 255 / 434Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SideltsevSimchuk 2.20/Sideltsev 1.61
Miss
What we said
55.3%
Sideltsev · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Sergii Sideltsev @ 1.61 · Lost
What happened
3–0
Simchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 28 · 12:00V. Simchuk4311912113S. Sideltsev366111091
LSep 11 · 05:30V. Simchuk31851171S. Sideltsev4111118113
LAug 30 · 12:30V. Simchuk28591131S. Sideltsev3811115113
LAug 24 · 15:00V. Simchuk3911511932S. Sideltsev47511911113
LAug 6 · 14:00V. Simchuk35119781S. Sideltsev4071111113
LJul 1 · 07:00V. Simchuk2566130S. Sideltsev371111153
WJun 24 · 06:30V. Simchuk632011119123S. Sideltsev56226711102
LJun 19 · 08:30V. Simchuk35881181S. Sideltsev4211119113
LJun 12 · 08:00V. Simchuk3398160S. Sideltsev401111183
V. Simchuk10
WOct 5 · 13:30V. Simchuk1.6181111113I. Dubinin2.20114581WOct 5 · 12:00V. Simchuk2.201111113P. Shulhachyk1.612660LOct 4 · 17:38V. Simchuk1.5361011111V. Kurliuk2.3811124133WOct 4 · 16:30V. Kurliuk2.75111659112V. Simchuk1.409141111133WOct 4 · 15:00V. Simchuk1.44111211113I. Sorochan2.63514771WOct 4 · 13:30V. Simchuk1.20113119113A. Lysyi4.3341171142LOct 4 · 12:00V. Simchuk1.2287111112O. Levytskyi4.00111169113WSep 29 · 10:30S. Honcharenko2.50104110V. Simchuk1.501211133WSep 29 · 09:30V. Simchuk1.501111113S. Honcharenko2.507880WSep 29 · 08:30V. Simchuk1.221111113E. Bakin4.004690
S. Sideltsev10
WOct 5 · 14:00I. Sushko1.5327111122S. Sideltsev2.38111197113WOct 5 · 12:30I. Dubinin1.6710680S. Sideltsev2.101211113LOct 1 · 17:39S. Sideltsev2.008101181I. Dubinin1.7311126113LOct 1 · 16:00S. Sideltsev1.675880P. Kolesnik2.101111113WOct 1 · 15:00M. Pohorilyi1.501111891S. Sideltsev2.5013911113WOct 1 · 14:00I. Dubinin1.6111811392S. Sideltsev2.20811811113LOct 1 · 12:30P. Shulhachyk2.38111110123S. Sideltsev1.536812101WSep 30 · 17:54R. Hryhoriev2.2511116642S. Sideltsev1.57671111113WSep 30 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.4411139792S. Sideltsev2.639111111113LSep 30 · 15:00S. Sideltsev1.57118971P. Kolesnik2.2551111113
Upcoming Matches
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