TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Viacheslav Simchuk vs Ihor Sorochan 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1151214117117––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:40 and never touched: 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Simchuk to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingViacheslav Simchuk above · Ihor Sorochan below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 78 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Viacheslav Simchuk at 65.3%
78 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Simchuk 12–16 Ihor Sorochan Viacheslav Simchuk has won 12 of their 28 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:4065.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.0pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Simchuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-16 in 28
Sorochan
Wrong
gap of 4 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simchuk 1513 vs Sorochan 1278
Simchuk
Correct
both rated, 234 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simchuk 80% vs Sorochan 20%
Simchuk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simchuk 90% vs Sorochan 20%
Simchuk
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Simchuk +1 · Sorochan -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Simchuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sorochan form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimchuk 1.444 / Sorochan 2.625
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Simchuk)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13239928
Simchuk1.44
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite75% won 108 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it98% 55 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it94% 79 of 84
Sorochan2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 26 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSimchuk5wins
AwaySorochan5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimchuk71.4%5 of 7
AwaySorochan100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simchuk7Sorochan3n = 10Simchuk took 7 of 10
S2Simchuk5Sorochan5n = 10split evenly
S3Simchuk6Sorochan4n = 10Simchuk took 6 of 10
S4Simchuk2Sorochan3n = 5Sorochan took 3 of 5
S5Simchuk1Sorochan3n = 4Sorochan took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSimchukSorochanSimchuk − SorochanBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.835.7+0.1per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimchukSorochanBasisWin rate · lifetime286 / 461 vs 230 / 41862%55%286 / 461 vs 230 / 418Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SimchukSimchuk 1.44/Sorochan 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Simchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Simchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 14:30V. Simchuk351311113I. Sorochan2211830
WAug 30 · 15:30V. Simchuk331111113I. Sorochan214980
LAug 24 · 13:30V. Simchuk166460I. Sorochan331111113
LAug 18 · 07:00V. Simchuk4561381172I. Sorochan511111117113
WAug 12 · 08:30V. Simchuk401514113I. Sorochan30131250
LAug 11 · 09:00V. Simchuk198740I. Sorochan331111113
WJul 19 · 05:30V. Simchuk481151110113I. Sorochan4481151282
WJun 12 · 10:28V. Simchuk4211911113I. Sorochan33611881
LJun 12 · 06:30V. Simchuk3811117452I. Sorochan48781111113
LJun 1 · 10:28V. Simchuk4211311982I. Sorochan42411511113
V. Simchuk10
WOct 4 · 13:30V. Simchuk1.20113119113A. Lysyi4.3341171142LOct 4 · 12:00V. Simchuk1.2287111112O. Levytskyi4.00111169113WSep 29 · 10:30S. Honcharenko2.50104110V. Simchuk1.501211133WSep 29 · 09:30V. Simchuk1.501111113S. Honcharenko2.507880WSep 29 · 08:30V. Simchuk1.221111113E. Bakin4.004690WSep 29 · 07:00V. Simchuk1.2011413123A. Lysyi4.3371111101WSep 29 · 06:00V. Simchuk1.28111012113V. Matviichuk3.504121051WSep 28 · 17:28V. Simchuk1.6112101110113I. Dubinin2.20101211292WSep 28 · 16:00Y. Zvolynskyi3.2521590V. Simchuk1.331117113WSep 28 · 14:30I. Sorochan2.1011830V. Simchuk1.671311113
I. Sorochan10
LOct 4 · 14:00V. Kurliuk3.401111113I. Sorochan1.308940WOct 4 · 12:30A. Lysyi3.402990I. Sorochan1.301111113LSep 28 · 15:30I. Dubinin1.6711811113I. Sorochan2.10911981LSep 28 · 14:30I. Sorochan2.1011830V. Simchuk1.671311113LSep 28 · 13:30S. Sideltsev1.33913911113I. Sorochan3.25111111732LSep 28 · 12:30I. Sorochan2.107890Y. Zvolynskyi1.671111113LSep 24 · 10:08S. Sideltsev1.441311113I. Sorochan2.6311470LSep 24 · 09:30I. Sorochan2.75128781M. Pohorilyi1.40101111113LSep 24 · 08:30I. Sorochan2.63811931S. Honcharenko1.4411511113WSep 24 · 07:00I. Sorochan3.4071111133S. Sideltsev1.301197111
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