TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Sergii Sideltsev vs Petr Kolesnik 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511811811––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:59 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSergii Sideltsev to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSergii Sideltsev above · Petr Kolesnik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 54 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Sergii Sideltsev at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Sideltsev 7–3 Petr Kolesnik Petr Kolesnik has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:5954.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sideltsev
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Sideltsev
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sideltsev 1492 vs Kolesnik 1578
Kolesnik
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sideltsev 80% vs Kolesnik 100%
Kolesnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sideltsev 60% vs Kolesnik 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sideltsev +2 · Kolesnik +6
Kolesnik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sideltsev) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolesnik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSideltsev 1.666 / Kolesnik 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sideltsev)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223763
Sideltsev1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite74% won 100 of 135
Up 2–0, closes it100% 69 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it89% 83 of 93
Kolesnik2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 26 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back18% 9 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSideltsev7wins
AwayKolesnik3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSideltsev leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSideltsev85.7%6 of 7
AwayKolesnik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sideltsev7Kolesnik3n = 10Sideltsev took 7 of 10
S2Sideltsev7Kolesnik3n = 10Sideltsev took 7 of 10
S3Sideltsev3Kolesnik7n = 10Kolesnik took 7 of 10
S4Sideltsev4Kolesnik3n = 7Sideltsev took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSideltsevKolesnikS − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.735.4+2.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSideltsevKolesnikBasisWin rate · lifetime253 / 434 vs 187 / 33958.3%55.2%253 / 434 vs 187 / 339Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SideltsevSideltsev 1.67/Kolesnik 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sideltsev · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kolesnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 15:00S. Sideltsev35118971P. Kolesnik3851111113
WSep 20 · 06:00S. Sideltsev42121108113P. Kolesnik50109111192
WSep 2 · 10:52S. Sideltsev361411113P. Kolesnik2412930
WSep 2 · 09:30S. Sideltsev52912811123P. Kolesnik461110114102
WAug 28 · 07:00S. Sideltsev47111114113P. Kolesnik33261691
WJul 23 · 10:49S. Sideltsev4311119123P. Kolesnik261411101
LJul 23 · 08:00S. Sideltsev29961131P. Kolesnik3811115113
WJul 11 · 09:30S. Sideltsev49111511123P. Kolesnik4591313101
LApr 17 · 08:00S. Sideltsev114430P. Kolesnik331111113
WDec 19 · 10:30S. Sideltsev331111113P. Kolesnik216960
S. Sideltsev10
WOct 1 · 15:00M. Pohorilyi1.501111891S. Sideltsev2.5013911113WOct 1 · 14:00I. Dubinin1.6111811392S. Sideltsev2.20811811113LOct 1 · 12:30P. Shulhachyk2.38111110123S. Sideltsev1.536812101WSep 30 · 17:54R. Hryhoriev2.2511116642S. Sideltsev1.57671111113WSep 30 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.4411139792S. Sideltsev2.639111111113LSep 30 · 15:00S. Sideltsev1.57118971P. Kolesnik2.2551111113LSep 30 · 13:30S. Sideltsev2.2081110101I. Dubinin1.6111912123WSep 30 · 12:00S. Sideltsev1.501171011113R. Hryhoriev2.5061112882WSep 28 · 16:58Y. Zvolynskyi3.0011112101S. Sideltsev1.3651114123LSep 28 · 16:30I. Dubinin1.731111123S. Sideltsev2.0079100
P. Kolesnik10
WOct 1 · 14:30P. Shulhachyk2.389660P. Kolesnik1.531111113WOct 1 · 13:00I. Dubinin2.7511291172P. Kolesnik1.40611119113WOct 1 · 12:00M. Pohorilyi2.7579130P. Kolesnik1.401111153WSep 30 · 17:24P. Kolesnik1.4411811133I. Dubinin2.638118111WSep 30 · 16:00P. Kolesnik1.17118127113R. Hryhoriev4.50711101162WSep 30 · 15:00S. Sideltsev1.57118971P. Kolesnik2.2551111113LSep 30 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi3.2511911113P. Kolesnik1.33911491LSep 30 · 12:30I. Dubinin3.251111133P. Kolesnik1.3399110LSep 27 · 10:39M. Denysenko1.83211118113P. Kolesnik1.8311671172WSep 27 · 09:30M. Levytskii1.5051111582P. Kolesnik2.50116511113
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