TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ihor Dubinin vs Petr Kolesnik 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191191311––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:23 and never touched: 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timePetr Kolesnik to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIhor Dubinin above · Petr Kolesnik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 64 set 3, 13-11 · our read held Petr Kolesnik at 73.3%
64 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Dubinin 6–19 Petr Kolesnik Ihor Dubinin has won 6 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2373.3%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 1.7pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kolesnik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-19 in 25
Kolesnik
Wrong
gap of 13 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dubinin 1435 vs Kolesnik 1554
Kolesnik
Wrong
both rated, 119 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dubinin 60% vs Kolesnik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dubinin 60% vs Kolesnik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dubinin -1 · Kolesnik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Kolesnik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolesnik form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDubinin 3.25 / Kolesnik 1.333
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Kolesnik)-1.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219051
Dubinin3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog34% won 34 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back17% 9 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 31
Kolesnik1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 27)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 69 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it96% 42 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it83% 54 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDubinin2wins
AwayKolesnik8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKolesnik leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDubinin25%1 of 4
AwayKolesnik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dubinin4Kolesnik6n = 10Kolesnik took 6 of 10
S2Dubinin4Kolesnik6n = 10Kolesnik took 6 of 10
S3Dubinin3Kolesnik7n = 10Kolesnik took 7 of 10
S4Dubinin2Kolesnik5n = 7Kolesnik took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricDubininKolesnikD − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.440.6−8.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDubininKolesnikBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 441 vs 181 / 33149.4%54.7%218 / 441 vs 181 / 331Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolesnikDubinin 3.25/Kolesnik 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.3%
Kolesnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Dubinin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 15:00I. Dubinin4591411113P. Kolesnik401112891
LAug 13 · 13:00I. Dubinin135350P. Kolesnik331111113
WJul 22 · 16:58I. Dubinin4212134133P. Kolesnik43101111111
LJul 22 · 15:00I. Dubinin42111211172P. Kolesnik46614411113
LJul 10 · 16:30I. Dubinin381111881P. Kolesnik4313811113
LJul 3 · 16:30I. Dubinin48111196112P. Kolesnik51881111133
LJun 20 · 15:00I. Dubinin145180P. Kolesnik331111113
LApr 16 · 13:00I. Dubinin27113941P. Kolesnik3961111113
LApr 10 · 16:00I. Dubinin311181111P. Kolesnik4213117113
LMar 30 · 15:00I. Dubinin2451270P. Kolesnik361114113
I. Dubinin10
LSep 28 · 17:28V. Simchuk1.6112101110113I. Dubinin2.20101211292WSep 28 · 16:30I. Dubinin1.731111123S. Sideltsev2.0079100WSep 28 · 15:30I. Dubinin1.6711811113I. Sorochan2.10911981WSep 28 · 14:00I. Dubinin1.401111113Y. Zvolynskyi2.757670LSep 28 · 13:00I. Dubinin2.0012911372V. Simchuk1.731011911113WSep 19 · 17:04I. Dubinin2.7511911113D. Tsys1.40611661WSep 19 · 16:00I. Dubinin3.5011119113O. Torianyk1.28971141WSep 19 · 15:00D. Tsys1.2881111762I. Dubinin3.5011751193LSep 19 · 14:00P. Kolesnik1.36111112I. Dubinin3.007510LSep 19 · 12:30M. Levytskii1.22101111193I. Dubinin4.001268171
P. Kolesnik10
LSep 27 · 10:39M. Denysenko1.83211118113P. Kolesnik1.8311671172WSep 27 · 09:30M. Levytskii1.5051111582P. Kolesnik2.50116511113WSep 27 · 08:00P. Kolesnik2.1011129113O. Tiutiunnyk1.677101181LSep 27 · 06:30P. Kolesnik2.63811814102O. Torianyk1.441191112123WSep 27 · 05:00P. Kolesnik1.83111199113M. Denysenko1.8397111192LSep 26 · 16:30P. Kolesnik3.001111951O. Torianyk1.361371183LSep 26 · 15:30P. Kolesnik2.389870M. Levytskii1.53111183WSep 26 · 14:00P. Kolesnik1.9111911113M. Denysenko1.80611541LSep 26 · 13:00P. Kolesnik1.9172120O. Tiutiunnyk1.801111143WSep 19 · 14:00P. Kolesnik1.36111112I. Dubinin3.007510
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