TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ihor Dubinin vs Sergii Sideltsev 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118811118311911
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:57 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeIhor Dubinin to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIhor Dubinin above · Sergii Sideltsev below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 91 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Ihor Dubinin at 59.3%
91 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Dubinin 19–6 Sergii Sideltsev Sergii Sideltsev has won 6 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5759.3%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 2.6pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Dubinin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-6 in 25
Dubinin
Wrong
gap of 13 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dubinin 1470 vs Sideltsev 1470
Dubinin
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dubinin 60% vs Sideltsev 40%
Dubinin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dubinin 70% vs Sideltsev 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dubinin -2 · Sideltsev -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Dubinin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDubinin 1.615 / Sideltsev 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Dubinin)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223762
Dubinin1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 54 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it85% 41 of 48
Sideltsev2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 32 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back19% 8 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDubinin6wins
AwaySideltsev4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDubinin leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDubinin71.4%5 of 7
AwaySideltsev66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dubinin7Sideltsev3n = 10Dubinin took 7 of 10
S2Dubinin5Sideltsev5n = 10split evenly
S3Dubinin4Sideltsev6n = 10Sideltsev took 6 of 10
S4Dubinin3Sideltsev4n = 7Sideltsev took 4 of 7
S5Dubinin3Sideltsev1n = 4Dubinin took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDubininSideltsevD − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.738.6+0.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDubininSideltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 440 vs 252 / 43448.9%58.1%215 / 440 vs 252 / 434Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DubininDubinin 1.61/Sideltsev 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Dubinin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sideltsev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 13:30I. Dubinin4411912123S. Sideltsev3981110101
WSep 28 · 16:30I. Dubinin341111123S. Sideltsev2679100
WSep 7 · 17:08I. Dubinin341211113S. Sideltsev2510960
WSep 7 · 12:00I. Dubinin42114511113S. Sideltsev4591111682
WAug 30 · 15:00I. Dubinin45812113113S. Sideltsev41111031162
LAug 24 · 16:00I. Dubinin2687110S. Sideltsev351111133
LAug 6 · 13:00I. Dubinin34129491S. Sideltsev43101111113
LAug 4 · 15:00I. Dubinin4011116392S. Sideltsev50891111113
WJul 18 · 12:30I. Dubinin511110811113S. Sideltsev3961211642
LJul 5 · 17:34I. Dubinin371211951S. Sideltsev4314711113
I. Dubinin10
LOct 1 · 13:00I. Dubinin2.7511291172P. Kolesnik1.40611119113LSep 30 · 17:24P. Kolesnik1.4411811133I. Dubinin2.638118111WSep 30 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi1.4011681192I. Dubinin2.75211117113WSep 30 · 14:30I. Dubinin1.73101111113R. Hryhoriev2.00126861WSep 30 · 13:30S. Sideltsev2.2081110101I. Dubinin1.6111912123WSep 30 · 12:30I. Dubinin3.251111133P. Kolesnik1.3399110LSep 28 · 17:28V. Simchuk1.6112101110113I. Dubinin2.20101211292WSep 28 · 16:30I. Dubinin1.731111123S. Sideltsev2.0079100WSep 28 · 15:30I. Dubinin1.6711811113I. Sorochan2.10911981WSep 28 · 14:00I. Dubinin1.401111113Y. Zvolynskyi2.757670
S. Sideltsev10
LOct 1 · 12:30P. Shulhachyk2.38111110123S. Sideltsev1.536812101WSep 30 · 17:54R. Hryhoriev2.2511116642S. Sideltsev1.57671111113WSep 30 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.4411139792S. Sideltsev2.639111111113LSep 30 · 15:00S. Sideltsev1.57118971P. Kolesnik2.2551111113LSep 30 · 13:30S. Sideltsev2.2081110101I. Dubinin1.6111912123WSep 30 · 12:00S. Sideltsev1.501171011113R. Hryhoriev2.5061112882WSep 28 · 16:58Y. Zvolynskyi3.0011112101S. Sideltsev1.3651114123LSep 28 · 16:30I. Dubinin1.731111123S. Sideltsev2.0079100WSep 28 · 15:00S. Sideltsev1.401416113Y. Zvolynskyi2.75121480WSep 28 · 13:30S. Sideltsev1.33913911113I. Sorochan3.25111111732
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