TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Petr Kolesnik vs Ihor Dubinin 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1188111181311––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
How it is goingPetr Kolesnik above · Ihor Dubinin below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 81 set 4, 13-11
81 points played in total.
H2H Petr Kolesnik 19–7 Ihor Dubinin Ihor Dubinin has won 7 of their 26 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Dubinin beat Kolesnik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dubinin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolesnik 1.444 / Dubinin 2.625
Setka Cup · #13223495
Kolesnik1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 69 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it96% 42 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it83% 54 of 65
Dubinin2.63
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog34% won 34 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back17% 9 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolesnik7wins
AwayDubinin3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKolesnik leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolesnik80%4 of 5
AwayDubinin40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolesnik5Dubinin5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolesnik5Dubinin5n = 10split evenly
S3Kolesnik6Dubinin4n = 10Kolesnik took 6 of 10
S4Kolesnik5Dubinin2n = 7Kolesnik took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolesnikDubininK − DBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.933.5+6.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolesnikDubininBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 335 vs 217 / 44054.6%49.3%183 / 335 vs 217 / 440Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolesnikKolesnik 1.44/Dubinin 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
3–1
Kolesnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 12:30P. Kolesnik2999110I. Dubinin351111133
LSep 1 · 15:00P. Kolesnik401112891I. Dubinin4591411113
WAug 13 · 13:00P. Kolesnik331111113I. Dubinin135350
LJul 22 · 16:58P. Kolesnik43101111111I. Dubinin4212134133
WJul 22 · 15:00P. Kolesnik46614411113I. Dubinin42111211172
WJul 10 · 16:30P. Kolesnik4313811113I. Dubinin381111881
WJul 3 · 16:30P. Kolesnik51881111133I. Dubinin48111196112
WJun 20 · 15:00P. Kolesnik331111113I. Dubinin145180
WApr 16 · 13:00P. Kolesnik3961111113I. Dubinin27113941
WApr 10 · 16:00P. Kolesnik4213117113I. Dubinin311181111
P. Kolesnik10
WSep 30 · 16:00P. Kolesnik1.17118127113R. Hryhoriev4.50711101162WSep 30 · 15:00S. Sideltsev1.57118971P. Kolesnik2.2551111113LSep 30 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi3.2511911113P. Kolesnik1.33911491LSep 30 · 12:30I. Dubinin3.251111133P. Kolesnik1.3399110LSep 27 · 10:39M. Denysenko1.83211118113P. Kolesnik1.8311671172WSep 27 · 09:30M. Levytskii1.5051111582P. Kolesnik2.50116511113WSep 27 · 08:00P. Kolesnik2.1011129113O. Tiutiunnyk1.677101181LSep 27 · 06:30P. Kolesnik2.63811814102O. Torianyk1.441191112123WSep 27 · 05:00P. Kolesnik1.83111199113M. Denysenko1.8397111192LSep 26 · 16:30P. Kolesnik3.001111951O. Torianyk1.361371183
I. Dubinin10
WSep 30 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi1.4011681192I. Dubinin2.75211117113WSep 30 · 14:30I. Dubinin1.73101111113R. Hryhoriev2.00126861WSep 30 · 13:30S. Sideltsev2.2081110101I. Dubinin1.6111912123WSep 30 · 12:30I. Dubinin3.251111133P. Kolesnik1.3399110LSep 28 · 17:28V. Simchuk1.6112101110113I. Dubinin2.20101211292WSep 28 · 16:30I. Dubinin1.731111123S. Sideltsev2.0079100WSep 28 · 15:30I. Dubinin1.6711811113I. Sorochan2.10911981WSep 28 · 14:00I. Dubinin1.401111113Y. Zvolynskyi2.757670LSep 28 · 13:00I. Dubinin2.0012911372V. Simchuk1.731011911113WSep 19 · 17:04I. Dubinin2.7511911113D. Tsys1.40611661
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