TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ihor Dubinin vs Sergii Sideltsev 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012611811––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:21 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeIhor Dubinin to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIhor Dubinin above · Sergii Sideltsev below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 58 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Ihor Dubinin at 57.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Dubinin 20–7 Sergii Sideltsev Sergii Sideltsev has won 7 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2157.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dubinin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-7 in 27
Dubinin
Wrong
gap of 13 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dubinin 1470 vs Sideltsev 1468
Dubinin
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dubinin 40% vs Sideltsev 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dubinin 60% vs Sideltsev 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dubinin +2 · Sideltsev -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Dubinin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dubinin form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDubinin 1.666 / Sideltsev 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Dubinin)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245430
Dubinin1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 01)
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 52 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it83% 40 of 48
Sideltsev2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 01)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 34 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back20% 9 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDubinin6wins
AwaySideltsev4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDubinin leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDubinin62.5%5 of 8
AwaySideltsevn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dubinin8Sideltsev2n = 10Dubinin took 8 of 10
S2Dubinin5Sideltsev5n = 10split evenly
S3Dubinin5Sideltsev5n = 10split evenly
S4Dubinin3Sideltsev4n = 7Sideltsev took 4 of 7
S5Dubinin2Sideltsev2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDubininSideltsevD − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.139.0−0.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDubininSideltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 441 vs 253 / 43448.8%58.3%215 / 441 vs 253 / 434Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DubininDubinin 1.67/Sideltsev 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Dubinin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sideltsev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 17:39I. Dubinin4011126113S. Sideltsev378101181
LOct 1 · 14:00I. Dubinin4211811392S. Sideltsev49811811113
WSep 30 · 13:30I. Dubinin4411912123S. Sideltsev3981110101
WSep 28 · 16:30I. Dubinin341111123S. Sideltsev2679100
WSep 7 · 17:08I. Dubinin341211113S. Sideltsev2510960
WSep 7 · 12:00I. Dubinin42114511113S. Sideltsev4591111682
WAug 30 · 15:00I. Dubinin45812113113S. Sideltsev41111031162
LAug 24 · 16:00I. Dubinin2687110S. Sideltsev351111133
LAug 6 · 13:00I. Dubinin34129491S. Sideltsev43101111113
LAug 4 · 15:00I. Dubinin4011116392S. Sideltsev50891111113
I. Dubinin10
LOct 5 · 13:30V. Simchuk1.6181111113I. Dubinin2.20114581WOct 1 · 17:39S. Sideltsev2.008101181I. Dubinin1.7311126113WOct 1 · 16:30I. Dubinin2.63111189113M. Pohorilyi1.4497111192LOct 1 · 15:30I. Dubinin1.83911891P. Shulhachyk1.8311811113LOct 1 · 14:00I. Dubinin1.6111811392S. Sideltsev2.20811811113LOct 1 · 13:00I. Dubinin2.7511291172P. Kolesnik1.40611119113LSep 30 · 17:24P. Kolesnik1.4411811133I. Dubinin2.638118111WSep 30 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi1.4011681192I. Dubinin2.75211117113WSep 30 · 14:30I. Dubinin1.73101111113R. Hryhoriev2.00126861WSep 30 · 13:30S. Sideltsev2.2081110101I. Dubinin1.6111912123
S. Sideltsev10
LOct 1 · 17:39S. Sideltsev2.008101181I. Dubinin1.7311126113LOct 1 · 16:00S. Sideltsev1.675880P. Kolesnik2.101111113WOct 1 · 15:00M. Pohorilyi1.501111891S. Sideltsev2.5013911113WOct 1 · 14:00I. Dubinin1.6111811392S. Sideltsev2.20811811113LOct 1 · 12:30P. Shulhachyk2.38111110123S. Sideltsev1.536812101WSep 30 · 17:54R. Hryhoriev2.2511116642S. Sideltsev1.57671111113WSep 30 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.4411139792S. Sideltsev2.639111111113LSep 30 · 15:00S. Sideltsev1.57118971P. Kolesnik2.2551111113LSep 30 · 13:30S. Sideltsev2.2081110101I. Dubinin1.6111912123WSep 30 · 12:00S. Sideltsev1.501171011113R. Hryhoriev2.5061112882
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.