TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ivan Sushko vs Ihor Dubinin 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Ivan Sushko
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
61112104111151012
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:23 and never touched: 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeIvan Sushko to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Sushko above · Ihor Dubinin below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 92 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Ivan Sushko at 63.7%
92 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Sushko 5–2 Ihor Dubinin Ihor Dubinin has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2363.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.0pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Sushko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Sushko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sushko 1506 vs Dubinin 1432
Sushko
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sushko 40% vs Dubinin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sushko 50% vs Dubinin 30%
Sushko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sushko -3 · Dubinin -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Sushko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sushko form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSushko 1.50 / Dubinin 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Sushko)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245502
Sushko1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite86% won 12 of 14
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Dubinin2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 36 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back18% 10 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSushko5wins
AwayDubinin2wins
4 of 7 to a deciderSushko leads 5–2, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSushko75%3 of 4
AwayDubinin33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sushko4Dubinin3n = 7Sushko took 4 of 7
S2Sushko4Dubinin3n = 7Sushko took 4 of 7
S3Sushko3Dubinin4n = 7Dubinin took 4 of 7
S4Sushko4Dubinin1n = 5Sushko took 4 of 5
S5Sushko3Dubinin1n = 4Sushko took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricSushkoDubininS − DBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match41.939.3+2.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSushkoDubininBasisWin rate · lifetime63 / 114 vs 215 / 44455.3%48.4%63 / 114 vs 215 / 444Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SushkoSushko 1.50/Dubinin 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Sushko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dubinin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 8 · 12:00I. Sushko371115113I. Dubinin2311390
WMay 27 · 16:00I. Sushko331111113I. Dubinin247980
LMar 11 · 13:00I. Sushko4587111182I. Dubinin48111178113
WFeb 25 · 14:00I. Sushko46115811113I. Dubinin4281111482
WFeb 20 · 13:00I. Sushko46612314113I. Dubinin531110111292
WFeb 13 · 10:30I. Sushko511011811113I. Dubinin4312411972
LNov 27 · 10:00I. Sushko35118881I. Dubinin4291111113
I. Sushko10
LOct 5 · 16:30I. Sushko1.831211611112V. Simchuk1.831031113133LOct 5 · 14:00I. Sushko1.5327111122S. Sideltsev2.38111197113LOct 5 · 13:00I. Sushko1.5391191172P. Shulhachyk2.38117117113LJul 9 · 10:00I. Sushko2.5094100O. Torianyk1.501111123WJul 9 · 09:00I. Sushko1.6113117133M. Pohorilyi2.2011811111WJul 9 · 08:30I. Sushko1.4411119133S. Sideltsev2.636111111WJul 9 · 07:30S. Sideltsev2.0010650I. Sushko1.731211113WJul 9 · 06:30M. Pohorilyi2.205511111I. Sushko1.6111114133LJul 9 · 05:00O. Torianyk1.441111114113I. Sushko2.6313591172WJul 8 · 17:38I. Sushko1.9110101213133M. Pohorilyi1.8012121011112
I. Dubinin10
LOct 5 · 14:30I. Dubinin2.005980P. Shulhachyk1.731111113LOct 5 · 13:30V. Simchuk1.6181111113I. Dubinin2.20114581LOct 5 · 12:30I. Dubinin1.6710680S. Sideltsev2.101211113WOct 1 · 17:39S. Sideltsev2.008101181I. Dubinin1.7311126113WOct 1 · 16:30I. Dubinin2.63111189113M. Pohorilyi1.4497111192LOct 1 · 15:30I. Dubinin1.83911891P. Shulhachyk1.8311811113LOct 1 · 14:00I. Dubinin1.6111811392S. Sideltsev2.20811811113LOct 1 · 13:00I. Dubinin2.7511291172P. Kolesnik1.40611119113LSep 30 · 17:24P. Kolesnik1.4411811133I. Dubinin2.638118111WSep 30 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi1.4011681192I. Dubinin2.75211117113
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