TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vasyl Matviichuk vs Valentyn Kurliuk 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113111114711––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:57 and never touched: 74.1% is still 74.1%
Graded at full timeValentyn Kurliuk to win
74.1%
74.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVasyl Matviichuk above · Valentyn Kurliuk below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 69 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Valentyn Kurliuk at 74.1%
69 points played in total.
H2H Vasyl Matviichuk 15–16 Valentyn Kurliuk Vasyl Matviichuk has won 15 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5774.1%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 0.9pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kurliuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-16 in 31
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matviichuk 1152 vs Kurliuk 1382
Kurliuk
Correct
both rated, 229 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matviichuk 40% vs Kurliuk 80%
Kurliuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matviichuk 50% vs Kurliuk 80%
Kurliuk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matviichuk -1 · Kurliuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Kurliuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatviichuk 3.25 / Kurliuk 1.333
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Kurliuk)-0.9pp
Setka Cup · #13255848
Matviichuk3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 40 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back8% 7 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 70
Kurliuk1.33
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite70% won 52 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it88% 44 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatviichuk2wins
AwayKurliuk8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKurliuk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatviichukn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKurliuk100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matviichuk2Kurliuk8n = 10Kurliuk took 8 of 10
S2Matviichuk2Kurliuk8n = 10Kurliuk took 8 of 10
S3Matviichuk5Kurliuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Matviichuk3Kurliuk2n = 5Matviichuk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatviichukKurliukM − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match30.235.5−5.3per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatviichukKurliukBasisWin rate · lifetime287 / 597 vs 152 / 28448.1%53.5%287 / 597 vs 152 / 284Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.836.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KurliukMatviichuk 3.25/Kurliuk 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.1%
Kurliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kurliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 07:00V. Matviichuk301111171V. Kurliuk3913114113
LSep 17 · 08:00V. Matviichuk28741161V. Kurliuk4011117113
LAug 12 · 08:00V. Matviichuk145630V. Kurliuk331111113
LJul 4 · 09:59V. Matviichuk229940V. Kurliuk331111113
LJul 4 · 05:00V. Matviichuk441011101122V. Kurliuk46124127113
WJun 26 · 09:00V. Matviichuk4011711113V. Kurliuk24511441
LJun 19 · 08:00V. Matviichuk166730V. Kurliuk331111113
WJun 14 · 08:00V. Matviichuk331111113V. Kurliuk169340
LMay 12 · 08:00V. Matviichuk2357110V. Kurliuk351111133
LApr 23 · 08:00V. Matviichuk52613111392V. Kurliuk561115811113
V. Matviichuk10
LOct 7 · 06:00V. Matviichuk1.401111261Y. Urezchenko2.7513511113WOct 6 · 09:59E. Bakin1.678550V. Matviichuk2.101111113LOct 6 · 09:30V. Matviichuk2.75119441M. Zavoloka1.4051111113WOct 6 · 08:30V. Matviichuk2.2061111113E. Bakin1.61117661LOct 6 · 07:00V. Matviichuk2.387770S. Honcharenko1.531111113WOct 6 · 06:00V. Matviichuk4.331111123I. Sushko1.2068100WOct 1 · 10:29S. Honcharenko1.615127101V. Matviichuk2.20111011123WOct 1 · 09:30V. Matviichuk1.401111113Y. Urezchenko2.752870LOct 1 · 08:30V. Matviichuk2.1011114672S. Honcharenko1.67571111113LOct 1 · 07:00V. Matviichuk1.53651151V. Khyzhnyak2.3811116113
V. Kurliuk10
WOct 7 · 05:30S. Honcharenko2.006570V. Kurliuk1.731111113WOct 4 · 17:38V. Simchuk1.5361011111V. Kurliuk2.3811124133LOct 4 · 16:30V. Kurliuk2.75111659112V. Simchuk1.409141111133WOct 4 · 15:30V. Kurliuk1.2011114123A. Lysyi4.337511101WOct 4 · 14:00V. Kurliuk3.401111113I. Sorochan1.308940WOct 4 · 13:00V. Kurliuk1.4412116113O. Levytskyi2.631081191WSep 23 · 09:00V. Kurliuk3.40119117113M. Pohorilyi1.3091131192WSep 23 · 08:00M. Zavoloka2.63651151V. Kurliuk1.4411119113LSep 23 · 07:00V. Simchuk1.6191111113V. Kurliuk2.20119561WSep 23 · 05:30E. Bakin1.801110591V. Kurliuk1.9191211113
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