TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vasyl Matviichuk vs Evgenii Bakin 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611117116116––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:27 and never touched: 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeEvgenii Bakin to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasyl Matviichuk above · Evgenii Bakin below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 69 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Evgenii Bakin at 56.1%
69 points played in total.
H2H Vasyl Matviichuk 2–5 Evgenii Bakin Vasyl Matviichuk has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2756.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 5.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Bakin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Bakin
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matviichuk 1154 vs Bakin 1186
Bakin
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matviichuk 60% vs Bakin 40%
Matviichuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matviichuk 30% vs Bakin 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matviichuk -1 · Bakin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Bakin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bakin form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatviichuk 2.20 / Bakin 1.615
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Bakin)-5.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250916
Matviichuk2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 37 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back7% 6 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 69
Bakin1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 27 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it83% 20 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMatviichuk2wins
AwayBakin5wins
1 of 7 to a deciderBakin leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatviichukn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBakin100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matviichuk2Bakin5n = 7Bakin took 5 of 7
S2Matviichuk2Bakin5n = 7Bakin took 5 of 7
S3Matviichuk3Bakin4n = 7Bakin took 4 of 7
S4Matviichuk3Bakin2n = 5Matviichuk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricMatviichukBakinM − BBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match33.739.1−5.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatviichukBakinBasisWin rate · lifetime285 / 594 vs 64 / 12248%52.5%285 / 594 vs 64 / 122Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.834.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BakinMatviichuk 2.20/Bakin 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.1%
Bakin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Matviichuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 29 · 07:30V. Matviichuk4989121192E. Bakin511111108113
LMay 21 · 09:00V. Matviichuk156090E. Bakin331111113
LMay 19 · 05:30V. Matviichuk30461191E. Bakin3711114113
LJan 28 · 07:00V. Matviichuk304115101E. Bakin4211811123
WOct 30 · 10:58V. Matviichuk3811115113E. Bakin32571191
WOct 30 · 10:00V. Matviichuk52111211183E. Bakin467149161
LAug 12 · 09:00V. Matviichuk226790E. Bakin331111113
V. Matviichuk10
LOct 6 · 09:30V. Matviichuk2.75119441M. Zavoloka1.4051111113LOct 6 · 07:00V. Matviichuk2.387770S. Honcharenko1.531111113WOct 6 · 06:00V. Matviichuk4.331111123I. Sushko1.2068100WOct 1 · 10:29S. Honcharenko1.615127101V. Matviichuk2.20111011123WOct 1 · 09:30V. Matviichuk1.401111113Y. Urezchenko2.752870LOct 1 · 08:30V. Matviichuk2.1011114672S. Honcharenko1.67571111113LOct 1 · 07:00V. Matviichuk1.53651151V. Khyzhnyak2.3811116113LOct 1 · 06:00V. Matviichuk2.6316650M. Zavoloka1.441811113LSep 29 · 09:00A. Lysyi2.101111113V. Matviichuk1.678370LSep 29 · 07:30E. Bakin1.281111108113V. Matviichuk3.5089121192
E. Bakin10
LOct 6 · 06:30M. Zavoloka1.5011611113E. Bakin2.50711821WOct 6 · 05:30E. Bakin1.80147911113S. Honcharenko1.91121111622LSep 29 · 10:02A. Lysyi1.401111113E. Bakin2.759340LSep 29 · 08:30V. Simchuk1.221111113E. Bakin4.004690WSep 29 · 07:30E. Bakin1.281111108113V. Matviichuk3.5089121192WSep 29 · 06:30S. Honcharenko2.10814971E. Bakin1.67111211113LSep 29 · 05:30E. Bakin1.28121111792A. Lysyi3.501091311113LSep 23 · 08:30V. Simchuk1.501111113E. Bakin2.506770LSep 23 · 07:30E. Bakin4.506430M. Pohorilyi1.171111113LSep 23 · 06:30M. Zavoloka1.8311127113E. Bakin1.838101171
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