TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Marcel Heczko vs Samuel Byrtus 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9119111210811––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:29 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcel Heczko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarcel Heczko above · Samuel Byrtus below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 81 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Marcel Heczko at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Heczko 21–15 Samuel Byrtus Samuel Byrtus has won 15 of their 36 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Heczko beat Byrtus 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:2954.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Byrtus
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
21-15 in 36
Heczko
Wrong
gap of 6 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heczko 1570 vs Byrtus 1596
Byrtus
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heczko 80% vs Byrtus 60%
Heczko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heczko 60% vs Byrtus 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heczko +4 · Byrtus -1
Heczko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Heczko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heczko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeczko 1.833 / Byrtus 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Heczko)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13254361
Heczko1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Byrtus1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHeczko7wins
AwayByrtus3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHeczko leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeczko71.4%5 of 7
AwayByrtus33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heczko7Byrtus3n = 10Heczko took 7 of 10
S2Heczko5Byrtus5n = 10split evenly
S3Heczko3Byrtus7n = 10Byrtus took 7 of 10
S4Heczko7Byrtus3n = 10Heczko took 7 of 10
S5Heczko3Byrtus1n = 4Heczko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHeczkoByrtusH − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.242.3+0.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeczkoByrtusBasisWin rate · lifetime293 / 602 vs 295 / 57148.7%51.7%293 / 602 vs 295 / 571Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HeczkoHeczko 1.83/Byrtus 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Heczko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Byrtus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 12:00M. Heczko47511911113S. Byrtus4611811972
LOct 5 · 08:30M. Heczko4815681182S. Byrtus521311116113
WSep 15 · 07:00M. Heczko4211128113S. Byrtus388101191
WAug 14 · 09:14M. Heczko3831111133S. Byrtus361168111
LAug 14 · 06:00M. Heczko391198111S. Byrtus4381111133
WJun 5 · 18:00M. Heczko4715912113S. Byrtus4213111081
WMay 23 · 19:30M. Heczko5311101110113S. Byrtus4271281232
LApr 25 · 12:00M. Heczko30511951S. Byrtus4211911113
WApr 24 · 09:30M. Heczko51139711113S. Byrtus50111111892
WApr 24 · 07:00M. Heczko3711114113S. Byrtus32691161
M. Heczko10
WOct 6 · 12:00M. Heczko1.80511911113S. Byrtus1.9111811972WOct 6 · 11:30J. Levicky1.801480M. Heczko1.911111113WOct 6 · 10:00M. Heczko1.4411911113V. Cerny2.63011291WOct 6 · 09:30P. Danko1.579111211112M. Heczko2.251113108133LOct 6 · 08:30P. Danko1.61511411113M. Heczko2.2011711862LOct 6 · 07:30M. Heczko1.91771311102J. Levicky1.801111115123WOct 6 · 06:30V. Cerny2.508470M. Heczko1.501111113WOct 5 · 09:07O. Hradil1.83103111162M. Heczko1.83121155113LOct 5 · 08:30S. Byrtus1.831311116113M. Heczko1.8315681182LOct 5 · 07:30M. Heczko1.91410111172J. Levicky1.80111269113
S. Byrtus10
LOct 6 · 12:00M. Heczko1.80511911113S. Byrtus1.9111811972WOct 6 · 11:00V. Cerny2.204131451S. Byrtus1.61111512113WOct 6 · 10:30S. Byrtus1.7391111113J. Levicky2.00116771WOct 6 · 09:04S. Byrtus2.105121113113A. Rinka1.67111081562LOct 6 · 08:00R. Skacelik1.57118113113S. Byrtus2.2541181192LOct 6 · 07:00V. Adamczyk1.571111113S. Byrtus2.258560WOct 6 · 06:30S. Byrtus1.831112143A. Rinka1.83910120LOct 5 · 09:30S. Byrtus1.73156100J. Levicky2.001711123WOct 5 · 08:30S. Byrtus1.831311116113M. Heczko1.8315681182WOct 5 · 07:00S. Byrtus1.6781111113O. Hradil2.10114721
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