TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jakub Levicky vs Marcel Heczko 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
111411811––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:29 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Levicky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Levicky above · Marcel Heczko below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 46 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Jakub Levicky at 54.0%
46 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Levicky 54–45 Marcel Heczko Marcel Heczko has won 45 of their 99 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Levicky beat Heczko 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2954.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Levicky
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
54-45 in 99
Levicky
Wrong
gap of 9 in 99, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Levicky 1546 vs Heczko 1558
Heczko
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Levicky 40% vs Heczko 60%
Heczko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Levicky 50% vs Heczko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Levicky -1 · Heczko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Levicky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Levicky form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLevicky 1.80 / Heczko 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Levicky)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13248883
Levicky1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 92 of 145
Up 2–0, closes it96% 42 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it89% 69 of 78
Heczko1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 61 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back23% 20 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLevicky5wins
AwayHeczko5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLevicky100%5 of 5
AwayHeczko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Levicky5Heczko5n = 10split evenly
S2Levicky8Heczko2n = 10Levicky took 8 of 10
S3Levicky3Heczko7n = 10Heczko took 7 of 10
S4Levicky3Heczko5n = 8Heczko took 5 of 8
S5Levicky2Heczko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLevickyHeczkoL − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.538.2−2.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLevickyHeczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime458 / 905 vs 292 / 60150.6%48.6%458 / 905 vs 292 / 601Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LevickyLevicky 1.80/Heczko 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Levicky · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Heczko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 11:30J. Levicky131480M. Heczko331111113
WOct 6 · 07:30J. Levicky501111115123M. Heczko48771311102
WOct 5 · 07:30J. Levicky49111269113M. Heczko43410111172
WSep 28 · 14:00J. Levicky331111113M. Heczko218850
LSep 27 · 08:00J. Levicky27711811M. Heczko4211911113
LSep 15 · 10:30J. Levicky4061211562M. Heczko491110611113
WSep 11 · 13:30J. Levicky4111118113M. Heczko29581151
LSep 11 · 11:00J. Levicky26711441M. Heczko3711411113
LSep 11 · 09:29J. Levicky4057111162M. Heczko49111197113
WSep 11 · 08:00J. Levicky3611113113M. Heczko31971141
J. Levicky10
LOct 6 · 10:30S. Byrtus1.7391111113J. Levicky2.00116771WOct 6 · 08:59J. Levicky1.83811118113V. Cerny1.8311491182LOct 6 · 08:00J. Levicky1.61117791V. Cerny2.2061111113WOct 6 · 07:30M. Heczko1.91771311102J. Levicky1.801111115123LOct 6 · 06:00J. Levicky2.25111197102P. Danko1.57481111123WOct 5 · 09:30S. Byrtus1.73156100J. Levicky2.001711123WOct 5 · 08:00J. Levicky1.5311513113O. Hradil2.386111191WOct 5 · 07:30M. Heczko1.91410111172J. Levicky1.80111269113LOct 5 · 06:00J. Levicky2.1012911982S. Byrtus1.671011611113LOct 4 · 12:59D. Oborny1.6111711113J. Levicky2.20611581
M. Heczko10
WOct 6 · 12:00M. Heczko1.80511911113S. Byrtus1.9111811972WOct 6 · 10:00M. Heczko1.4411911113V. Cerny2.63011291WOct 6 · 09:30P. Danko1.579111211112M. Heczko2.251113108133LOct 6 · 08:30P. Danko1.61511411113M. Heczko2.2011711862LOct 6 · 07:30M. Heczko1.91771311102J. Levicky1.801111115123WOct 6 · 06:30V. Cerny2.508470M. Heczko1.501111113WOct 5 · 09:07O. Hradil1.83103111162M. Heczko1.83121155113LOct 5 · 08:30S. Byrtus1.831311116113M. Heczko1.8315681182LOct 5 · 07:30M. Heczko1.91410111172J. Levicky1.80111269113LOct 5 · 06:30O. Hradil1.8311411113M. Heczko1.83711781
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